Pre-sales for the iPhone 18 Pro may be soaring, but that’s only because of delays in the release of Apple’s iPhone 18 base product. As a result, forecasters on prediction markets like Kalshi have driven down “yes” options on whether Apple will make its standard iPhone 18 available before October of this year.
In late 2025, traders believed the chances of the Apple iPhone 18 base device being released before October 2026 were near 100 percent. That’s not the case anymore, though. Contracts have plummeted to 18 cents for “yes” before the end of the year, and 12 cents before October.
If you’re a trader who’s engaged in this market on Kalshi, you’ll want to pay very close attention to the full terms of each contract you purchase. This is because there is a separate market available for the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro that does not relate to the iPhone 18 base product (which has over $1 million in trading volume).
The Kalshi market that is currently priced at 18 cents before 2027 refers only to the iPhone 18 standard device. It does not include the iPhone 18 Pro or the iPhone 18 Pro Max. If, upon searching for relevant markets, you are taken to the market that has a 99-cent “yes” price on related contracts, remember that you are viewing the iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max market and not the prediction market for the base product.
We’re obviously taking the “no” contracts on the Apple iPhone 18 base device being released before October 2026. We’ll explain why in the next section.
Earlier today, Forbes published a report that explains the release windows for the Apple iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e entry-level devices. It is no secret that Apple has pushed back the anticipated public launch date for the standard iPhone 18 to the spring of 2027.
This has resulted in a significant “boost” to pre-sales for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max versions. However, the actual prediction market trade that’s available for 12 cents (before October 2026) covers only the iPhone 18 standard release.
This is why our picks are in line with Kalshi forecasters, who have already read the “tea leaves” and positioned their trades to align with the delayed release of the iPhone 18. One final reminder: we can’t stress enough how important it is to double-check that you’re participating in the correct market when making trades on any iPhone 18 release date.
You’re unlikely to find a “no” option for the Apple iPhone 18 to release before the end of the year that’s under 80 cents per contract. Still, we think there’s actual value in purchasing those contracts despite their extremely high price (relative to a few months ago).
If you’re a customer who’s anxiously awaiting the moment you get your hands on one of the newest mobile devices that Apple has to offer, you’ll be limited to buying either an iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max until next year. The two premium devices that are scheduled to launch this year are priced between $1,250 and $1,400 USD, depending on the retailer.
If, on the other hand, you simply want to get in on the trading action for the iPhone 18 base product market, you can sign up for a new account at Kalshi today and start buying options in five minutes.
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