The Democratic Primary election to determine who will advance to the November general election for Wisconsin’s next governor takes place tomorrow, August 11th. The eventual winner will face off against Republican Tom Tiffany on November 3rd, as current Governor Tony Evers is retiring at the age of 75.
We’re quickly learning that prediction markets related to Democratic primary contenders who self-label as “progressive” or “socialist” are highly sought after. Roughly 24 hours before the Wisconsin governor Democratic primary election begins, trading volume on Kalshi has already surpassed $4.25 million.
Do Wisconsin Democrats prefer Francesca Hong or David Crowley? That’s the main question in a swing state that typically reflects voting patterns that we’ve already seen in Michigan. Just like last week’s El-Sayed vs. Stevens market for Michigan’s open Senate seat, the predicted outcome in the Wisconsin Democratic primary election for governor is heavily skewed in favor of the “progressive” candidate.
However, recent polling indicates that the outcome will be much closer than the 95.6¢ per-contract price for Francesca Hong suggests. We’re not falling for that again. One week ago, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed was priced at 99 cents to win the primary election for Michigan’s Senate seat, but only narrowly defeated Democratic opponent Haley Stevens to advance to the November general election.
Do we think Francesca Hong will win tomorrow? Yes. But do we think her chances reflect the 95.6¢ price for her “yes” option on Kalshi? Absolutely not. Therefore, we recommend going for the affordably priced David Crowley contracts, which are currently available for just 4.3 cents.
Francesca Hong represents the “socialist,” “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party, while David Crowley is an “establishment” candidate who is endorsed by current Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers. Fortunately, age will not be a factor when Wisconsin voters go to the polls tomorrow. Neither major candidate in the Democratic primary election for governor is older than 40.
Technically, all Wisconsin voters can cast a ballot in the Democratic primary elections tomorrow. But there’s one caveat: voters cannot engage in ticket-splitting. Therefore, an individual must choose a single party when voting in primary elections.
If last week’s Democratic primary for the open Michigan Senate seat is any indication, Kalshi traders could be in for a wild ride by tomorrow evening in Wisconsin. Francesca Hong believers are fired up in the Kalshi market. The former professional chef’s price has more than tripled (from just 27 cents per contract) since May of this year.
Less than a month ago, David Crowley’s “yes” contracts to win the primary election were trading at 25 cents apiece. They’re under 5 cents right now. If you’re looking to place your forecast for the Wisconsin governor Democratic primary winner, you can head to Kalshi and open an account right now if you’re located in the United States. The minimum age to participate is 18 years old. All winning contracts settle at exactly one dollar once the market is determined.
Loading …
