And then there were four. The 2026 World Cup may be nearing its conclusion, but the best is still to come for soccer fans. The four highest-ranked teams in the world will be in action this week as they each attempt to reach the World Cup Final.
Tomorrow afternoon, the first semifinal match between France and Spain will kick off at 3:00 Eastern Time from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The showdown features two European powerhouses that boast unique playing styles along with a tradition of winning on the global stage.
The outcome of tomorrow’s World Cup semifinal matchup will likely depend on which team is able to impose its preferred strategy on the field. For Spain, it’s all about ball control. For France, quick striking and timely counterattacks led by Golden Boot contender Kylian Mbappé represent the keys to victory.
With $20 million already traded on prediction markets on which team will advance, France is listed as a 60-40 favorite with a corresponding 60¢ per-contract price. Kalshi traders have the odds pretty much pegged from what we can tell. Despite that, we still believe there is a modicum of value to be had on the France side of the market.
Spain has been a great pick leading up to this point due to its relatively low price that was induced by a lackluster group stage performance. But now that the team is in the semifinals, Spain’s contract price would need to drop all the way down to 35¢ for us to consider buying its “yes” options to win tomorrow’s semifinal.
Multiple reports state that AT&T Stadium will be sold out ahead of the France vs. Spain World Cup semifinal match. Average ticket prices on resale markets are around $4,000 with VIP packages going for well over $100,000. If you are lucky enough to attend the match in-person, expect a raucous crowd that reacts differently from what one might expect during a Dallas Cowboys home game.
Neither team has issues with red card suspensions, and all yellow cards from the quarterfinal matches have been wiped clean. Kalshi forecasters who are looking into related markets should be aware that, if the match is tied after 90 minutes of regulation, there will be a mandatory 30-minute overtime period.
Multiple goals can be scored during the two halves of overtime. If the match is still tied after Minute 120, then there will be a five-round penalty kick shootout to determine which team advances to the July 19th World Cup Final. The losing team will play for third place against the team that fails to advance in the second semifinal match between England and Argentina.
The winner’s market on Kalshi has remained relatively stable since it opened over the weekend. Spain is a 3-to-2 underdog against France’s lethal offensive attack and stingy defense. Across six total World Cup matches, France has outscored opponents by a 16-2 margin, which is why so many traders are bullish on the team capturing its third World Cup in less than three decades.
Spain’s defense has been even more impressive, allowing just a single goal throughout the 2026 World Cup, but it has yet to be tested by France’s explosive offensive capabilities. If Spain is able to keep France in check tomorrow, it will advance to compete for its second World Cup title (2010).
The first World Cup semifinal match kicks off tomorrow at 3:00pm Eastern. US viewers can watch the action live on Fox.
Loading …
