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There is surely some sort of buyout clause in this contract that makes it unlikely Gruden will ever see the end of it or the full $100 million, but this still seems like a lot of time and money to commit to a guy who hasn’t been an NFL coach in a decade.

Gruden has a perfectly fine track record—he’s 95-81 in 11 years as an NFL head coach—but all he’s done over the past 10 years is work the telestrator and bark things at future NFL quarterbacks in a conference room. And, Dick Vermeil aside, the track records of NFL coaches returning to the sideline after lengthy spells away are not encouraging.

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Coming off last season’s playoff appearance, the Raiders looked to be an ascendant AFC power. But they sucked in 2017, finishing 6-10 and firing head coach Jack Del Rio. There’s still plenty of talent on the roster, though, and it’s not hard to imagine them bouncing back next season. They’re betting a lot of money on the hopes that a TV personality who was a good coach during the last Bush administration can get them there.