What Prediction Markets Are Getting Wrong About 2026 NFL Draft

The 2026 NFL Draft gets started on Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

During the days leading up to the draft each year, good reporting prevails. Even though these NFL teams like to hold information close to the chest, different angles start to come out as the draft gets closer.

Prediction markets have given sports fans a view into the real-time probability of a given event, giving users the ability to buy and sell “yes or no” contracts on outcomes of events like the NFL Draft.

Using Kalshi, here are a few NFL Draft outcomes that the prediction markets might be missing.

No. 2 overall pick

Everyone knows the NFL Draft is getting started when the Las Vegas Raiders select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. 

But who will the New York Jets select at No. 2 overall?

For weeks leading up to the draft, the consensus would be that the Jets were eyeing Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese. Now, ESPN’s Peter Schrager is suggesting that David Bailey could be New York’s actual target, making him the first pass rusher selected.

On Kalshi, Bailey is currently the highest-priced contract to be the first EDGE drafted. But if he goes No. 2 overall to the Jets, that would make Reese the second defensive end selected. As of Tuesday morning, Reese’s contract to be the second edge rusher drafted is 26¢, or a 26% probability, giving NFL Draft fans a great opportunity to capitalize on the second overall pick.

Sonny Styles to be selected in the Top 5

Not as juicy, but word out of the NFL Combine in Indianapolis was that the New York Giants would have no issue selecting Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.

The Giants have the No. 5 overall pick and No. 10 overall after trading Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals.

If both premium EDGE rushers (Reese and Bailey) are both off the board, and so is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, the Giants likely won’t be tempted to get cute with this pick. Styles is an elite linebacker prospect and would fill an immediate need in New York.

Right now, a contract on Styles to be selected in the top five slots is 49¢, or 49% probability. Or, a contract on Styles to be the No. 5 overall pick is 31¢, or 31% probability.

Team to draft Jordyn Tyson

According to reports, the Giants also really like Tyson and GM Joe Schoen spent time with him before his workout last week. However, New York already has Malik Nabers as their wide receiver No. 1 and just brought in Odell Beckham Jr. on a free agent workout.

Tyson’s stock seems to be shooting up, especially as teams get more comfortable with his medical situation following a workout on Friday.

The Cleveland Browns need a playmaker as bad as any team in the top 10. Even if they trade down from No. 6 overall, Tyson could be their target, especially if they only move back a few spots.

Right now, a contract on Tyson to be drafted in Cleveland is 5¢ or a 5% chance.