3 Most Overrated Teams in the AP Top 25 Preseason Poll

Drew Thirion|published: Tue 18th August, 16:11 2026

Jul 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The SEC once again leads the preseason polls with 9 teams inside the AP top 25. I think most of those teams are somewhat deserving of their rankings, but they’ll always be an easy target for the conference that overrates itself. With that being said, here’s who I believe are the three most overrated teams in the preseason top 25.

#8 Texas A&M: Team Total o/u 8.5

Year two under head coach Mike Elko was a wonderful success story, with the Aggies finishing 11-2, but when you peek under the curtain, it wasn’t as pretty as it looked. Their best win was against a Notre Dame team with zero ranked wins and a five-loss Missouri squad.

Quarterback Marcel Reed struggled with consistency against any teams with a pass rush due to struggles on the offensive line. I’m not sure Texas A&M did nearly enough to fix those issues, and now they’ll have a much tougher schedule in 2026. I love Elko as a coach, but I think Reed is more of a game manager and will continue to struggle in the heart of their SEC schedule.

#18 Penn State: Team Total o/u 9.5

Penn State football head coach Matt Campbell jogs at the start of a practice session inside Holuba Hall on Monday, August 10, 2026, in State College.

don’t think James Franklin gets nearly enough credit for stabilizing a Penn State program that was on the ropes in the mid 2010s. Plenty of former giants would kill to be as consistent as Penn State, and I think many will realize it’s not easy to be a consistent 10-win program. Fortunately for Matt Campbell, he’s starting his first year in Happy Valley with the easiest in-and-out-of-conference schedule in the Big 10.

Even still, I think Penn State is wildly overrated. The Nittany Lions lost a ton of pieces to the portal this offseason with Franklin’s departure, and Campbell replaced them with his former Iowa State guys. In theory, that should help in a transition year, but are we potentially overrating how average his team was at Iowa State last year?

Rocco Becht was one of the top transfer QBs in the portal, but he’s coming off a season where he lost every big conference game, averaged just 208 passing yards, and had 16 passing touchdowns to 9 interceptions. I’m not sure why he’s getting so much hype coming into a season where he will be playing significantly harder competition, even if it’s an easy Big 10 schedule. I need to see it before I believe it with Campbell and Penn State.

#19 SMU: Team Total o/u 8.5

Jan 2, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; SMU Mustangs wide receiver Yamir Knight (8) and safety Ahmaad Moses (3) are interviewed by Fox Sports broadcaster Joel Klatt after the Holiday Bowl against the Arizona Wildcats at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Someone has to win games in the ACC this year outside of Miami, but I’m unsure if that’s going to be SMU. The Mustangs luckily don’t have Miami on the schedule this year, but they’ve got a tough, under-the-radar schedule on their hands. Trips to Notre Dame, Louisville, and Florida State could be tricky, and Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Cal could all be top contenders in the ACC this year as well.

More than just a difficult schedule, I’m a lot lower on Kevin Jennings than most. I think he’s way too turnover-prone, and he doesn’t have the weapons around him to make up for that. If the defense doesn’t take some big steps forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU was closer to missing a bowl game, than stealing one of the final spots in the playoffs like they did in 2024.

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