Kennedy Nzechukwu Is the UFC Underdog Bet You Should Know Tonight

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate the outcome of UFC fights — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues.

Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Kennedy Nzechukwu (+122)

Model Odds: -152

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Knockout (+223)

I don’t think there’s a great deal of trust in either side of this heavyweight bout between Shamil Gaziev and Kennedy Nzechukwu, but the wrong guy is favored.

There’s no doubt that Gaziev, who trains in Dagestan with that famed group of mixed martial artists, has had a tougher road inside the top 10 of late, going to battle Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Brando Pericic. The problem is that his combined -49 strike differential showed he didn’t compete with them, and he took a ton of damage in the process.

Above all, “The Big Meal” has never corrected the cardio issues that forced him to blatantly quit against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and hang on for dear life against Don’Tale Mayes. He was huffing and puffing not even five minutes into a back-and-forth war with Pericic.

Now, Nzechukwu isn’t exactly a high-paced, confident fighter in his own right, but he’ll have a cardio edge here after going the distance five times in UFC without much issue. “The African Savage” has always been an athletic marvel with an 83” reach, giving him length to land jabs opposite Gaziev (78”).

The single most important aspect of Nzechukwu’s game in this matchup, though, is his quality takedown defense (80%). It not only denies Gaziev a path to win, but it also denies him the ability to rest in top control. Nzechukwu defended 10 of 13 attempts from Marcus Buchecha in his last fight.

Gaziev’s 1.22% knockdown rate against the former 205er’s iffy chin is his path to victory. If Gaziev is shooting 13 takedowns, I’ll waltz to the cash counter right then and there because of the energy it will take to fail that many times. He tried just 7 before expiring against Rozenstruik.

Sayif Saud and Fortis MMA aren’t my favorite gym historically, but they know the deal here. There’s an early storm to weather before Nzechukwu’s speed and athleticism can take over. He’s done it before, recording 7 of his 10 UFC wins outside the first five minutes.

The model compares Nzechukwu’s +0.38 striking success rate (SSR) to Gaziev’s -1.98 and identifies a stand-up advantage. It also only projects 0.57 median takedowns for Gaziev when consistently taking that gameplan hasn’t really been the Russian’s historical tendency.

If the favorite here is early-finish-or-bust, that’s extremely appealing when Nzechukwu is also a powerful guy with two first-round KOs in four heavyweight bouts. He’s viable early or late. I think Gaziev is only viable when there’s gas in the tank