MLB Best Bets Today: 3 Picks for Wednesday, September 23rd

The MLB regular season gets another step closer to the finish line with 16 games — one double-header -- starting with Washington vs. Detroit at 1:10 p.m. EST and ending with the Dodgers and Padres at 10:10 p.m. EST.

I’ve got a few ideas for y’all. 

Here are my top picks for the best MLB bets of the day:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Under 6.5 at +123 (Caesars)

Rays starter Ian Seymour has a better record on the road (5-2) than at home (4-5) but has a 4.96 ERA and .257 OBA away from home. Gerrit Cole has a losing record at home (3-4), and his home ERA is a tad higher than on the road (3.93 to 3.41).

But both pitchers are throwing well enough to control lineups that are hitting .206 (Yankees) and .191 (Rays) over the last week. The Yankees won 2-0 on Tuesday, and today’s outcome will likely be another low-scoring total.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates (alt line) -1.5 at +190 (FanDuel)

The Cardinals have lost five of their last six, including last night’s game vs. the Pirates (2-0). They’ve been struggling at the plate over the last week, hitting just .191 while generating just 16 runs across five games.

Oh, and the starting pitcher scheduled for today has a 5.36 ERA and a 5-14 record. But for some odd reason, despite being on the road, the betting line had the Cardinals listed as favorites for this game.

Pittsburgh appears to be going with a bullpen day, and their offense has been hitting .283 over the last week. I can’t see any reason to believe the Cardinals will win. If anything, it will be another multi-run loss.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox

Guardians  ML at +114 (FanDuel)

Boston is slumping at the wrong time. The Red Sox have lost three in a row after dropping last night’s game to Cleveland 3-2, and five of their last seven. They’ve struggled at the plate, hitting just .201 over the last week, scoring a total of 15 runs across six games.

Cleveland comes in on a hot streak with wins in their last six games, hitting .288 and scoring 27 runs across five games. For some crazy reason, Boston is the betting favorite. With Foster Griffin getting the start (15-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).

Now, Boston is scheduled to send Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) to the mound. Gray has a solid history against the Guardians, holding opponents to .208 OBA. But even if he has a good day against the Cleveland lineup, he likely won't get enough support from his lineup.