How College Football Prediction Markets Have Shifted After Three Weeks

It’s wild to think that we’re already about a month into the college football season, and the prediction markets certainly look different right now than they did in August.

Kalshi, the leading prediction market that allows users to trade contracts of real-world outcomes like college football, currently gives Texas the best chance of winning the national championship. Before the season, the Longhorns shared a 13% chance of winning the national championship with Ohio State, the team they upset in Week 2.

Let’s take a look at these markets and how they’ve moved as of Wednesday morning.

National championship

After coming back from an improbable deficit to dethrone Ryan Day’s Buckeyes in Week 2, Texas has the best chances of winning the championship on Kalshi. Right behind them?

Ohio State, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Led by quarterback CJ Carr, the Fighting Irish are still undefeated – and undeniably one of the best teams in the country. They have a 12% chance of winning the national championship, which is the same percentage as the Buckeyes.

Even though Ohio State lost to Notre Dame in Week 2, their College Football Playoff hopes remain intact because of a brutal upcoming schedule. Day’s team has proven capable of surprises whenever they reach the Playoff, and barring another upset, the Buckeyes will be a top contender all year.

Other contending teams include the Georgia Bulldogs and Indiana Hoosiers, who are both being given an 11% chance of winning the national championship along with the Miami Hurricanes, who have a 10% chance.

Trinidad Chambliss Heisman watch is already on

Before the season, Chambliss was given a 6% chance of winning the Heisman on Kalshi.

Lane Kiffin had just departed Ole Miss, and there wasn’t a lot of faith in Oxford, even though Chambliss stayed loyal as the team’s quarterback following a very strong year.

Chambliss beat LSU in Week 3, and spiked up to a 20% chance of winning the Heisman.

Typically, Heisman moments aren’t made in September, and other contenders including Miami quarterback Darian Mensah should be considered with a 17% chance. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor is quickly rising as well, getting an 11% chance.

Pre-season prediction market leaders like Texas quarterback Arch Manning has slipped to just a 7% chance of winning the Heisman. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith currently leads all non-quarterbacks with a 9% chance of winning the Heisman, while his Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin is well below Manning with just a 3% chance of winning the Heisman.