MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday: Two Totals for May 27 Slate

The weather is heating up, and so is the scoring in MLB.

We’ve got an over today on that theme in Wednesday May 27th’s MLB picks.

Season Record 28-23-1, +2.06 Units

Nationals at Guardians

Over 7.5 (-113 Kalshi)

The Nats offense continues to surprise to the upside in 2026. They lead MLB in runs with 304 and are 4th in wRC+ at 111 and 4th in SLG at .422. And they’re just getting hotter with the weather as they have a league best .462 SLG in May with a 120 wRC+. James Wood and CJ Abrams continue to lead the way, but Jacob Young, Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. all have a wRC+ of at least 111 in May and Dylan Crews is back up now making this a super deep lineup.

They face a tough task today as the Guardians start their ace Gavin Williams. He’s having an overall terrific season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and was absolutely nails in his start (8 IP, 0 ER, 11 K in Philly). But he’s also a bit inconsistent. In his last six starts he’s allowed two runs or fewer in three of them, and five runs or more in the other three.

I like Over on the reasonable chance we get the shaky version of Williams, and also the fact that the Nats start Miles Mikolas. He has a history of taking the ball every fifth day as he hasn’t missed a start since 2021. But he’s pretty much cannon fodder as he has a 6.17 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and just a 15.3% K%.

Rays at Orioles

Rays F5 (-115 bet365)

Going against a recent trend here as the Orioles have won 4-of-5 while the Rays have lost three straight. But it’s the Rays bullpen that has let them down so let’s stick to the F5. Tampa starts lefty Steven Matz, and he’s been good this year with a 3.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Plus the O’s have slashed an ugly .215/.300/.347 against southpaws all season. They’re also just 3-9-4 on the F5 vs. lefty starts, with an ugly -39% ROI. They’ve stuck it to bettors at home also on the F5 at 9-15-4, -31% ROI.