MLB Best Bets Today: Guardians Value Play and White Sox-Giants Total

My “bonus” selection didn’t pan out on Wednesday, so let’s stick to two MLB picks today as we head into the long weekend.

Season Record 25-21-1, +1.12 Units

Guardians at Phillies

Okay, this is a tough one as we’re going against one of the top starters in baseball.

The Phillies roll out Cristopher Sanchez and he has so far followed up his top three Cy Young performances in 2025 with an even better 1.82 ERA encore 2026. The one mini knock against him was he did not have exciting strikeout numbers, Well, he’s up to 29.9% K% (91st percentile) and 32% Whiff% (90th percentile) while maintaining his extreme worm-burner ways (59% GB%, 98th percentile). His WHIP is “elevated” at 1.20 thanks to a high .359 BABIP and we can’t attribute that all to bad luck as he’s giving up harder contact than usual. Plus he’s got a bad defensive team behind him as the Phillies rank fifth worst in MLB with -8 Fielding Runs allowed (not including Catcher defense).

Still, why fade this, especially with a Phillies offense that’s hitting much better lately? Well the Guardians have excelled in this spot. They’re 13-4, 42% ROI on the F5 run line as underdogs. Also they’re 12-3, 58.1% ROI vs. lefty starters on the F5. They don’t have the most imposing lineup, but they’ve hit well against southpaws with a 113 wRC+, seventh best in MLB. Jose Ramirez not shockingly leads the way at .340/.438/.679 and 5 homers in just 64 PA’s.

The Guardians will start Gavin Williams, who sporadically flashes ace stuff but can also walk the farm. That hasn’t been a problem lately however as he has just a 3.7% BB% over his last six starts, vs. a 27.3% K%. Unfortunately that hasn’t translated to great bottom line numbers as he has just a 4.42 ERA. Like Sanchez, he’s not controlling contact well. But importantly his team defense is much better, so there’s serious potential for a lights out performance any time Williams takes the mound. I know it's an uphill battle in this game but I like the price on the dog here.

White Sox at Giants

I know the “bingo card” analogy is a little tiresome, but who had Davis Martin vs. Trevor McDonald matchup as a battle of budding aces? I’m overstating a bit, but Martin has a 1.61 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 56 IP for the surprisingly competitive White Sox. Estimators will always expect those sorts of numbers to regress, but he’s got a 22.8% K-BB% and 3.02 SIERA, so he’s been legit terrific. McDonald meanwhile has replaced the injured Logan Webb and way outpitched him with a 2.37 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 19 IP in three starts.

What’s most impressive is that he’s done that in very tough matchups (Padres, at Dodgers, at A’s) and the metrics say it's pretty real as he’s rocking a 2.62 SIERA. It’s a pitchers ballpark and the Giants have a lousy offense, so runs should be at a premium here.