UFC Shanghai Best Value Bets: Three Method-of-Victory Props to Target

A series of heavy favorites highlights the UFC Shanghai card, happening this Saturday Morning. At times, it becomes significantly harder to find the best lines possible when they’re placed this wide. 

It becomes an even harder challenge when one can tell who wins, though the method of victory is much more up in the air.

Rei Tsuruya by SUB +130

Rei Tsuruya is one of the many lighter weight Japanese fighters, alongside Tatsuro Taira and Kai Asakura that are in line to become the first ever Japanese Champion. Tsuruya has 5 Submission wins and has largely dominated his opponents so far in the UFC, with his sole loss being to Joshua Van.

He comes into this fight, facing Kevin Borjas who is a solid opponent, though is a few levels below when it comes to skill and technique. Borjas is a fighter primarily known for his heart and grit, therefore we could see moments where this fight is close, though if Tsuruya takes him down, it could be over quickly.

With a 72% TD Defense, people are expecting some resistance from the Peruvian, though the improved striking from Tsuruya will allow for cleaner entries.

Bilal Hasan by Points +240

Two undefeated fighters will face each other, though most of the fanbase are only aware of Bilal Hasan following his swift KO win at DWCS a couple weeks back. Hasan has 7 Knockout victories, is fast, has momentum and isn’t afraid of getting into the fire to get it done. His opponent, Nilson Rojas, is undefeated, strong for the weight class and also has the same amount of wins at 9.

Similar to Hasan, he carries 7 KO wins to his record. Both men have great power for the division, though the differential will be more on the durability of both men. In fights where both men are skilled, it’s likely we see a closer fight that sees all three rounds with the skill of Hasan being the main differential.

Sumaderji by DEC +210

Only a couple months back Sumaderji was en route to a smooth win over Alex Perez, when an unfortunate kick to the privates of Perez led to the No Contest. Perez needed the bucket and seemed to be in serious pain, despite being spotted at McDonalds only a few hours after the incident, leading some to believe in a bit of theatrics in a fight that was not going his way.

Sumaderji had 26 strikes to Perez’s 9, while at the same time having one takedown and one submission attack. I expect in this rematch we see a more improved version of Perez, that’s going to lead to this being a closer fight.

While we have seen Perez caught in submissions, I do think he’s going to be too aware in this rematch and will have moments of his own. Ultimately, Sumaderji will use the home-court advantage to sway in his way, winning a close decision.