Alabama Could Be Much Closer to Missing the Playoffs Than Winning a Title

It’s been a bit of a rocky start to the post-NIL era at Alabama… Well, at least by Alabama’s otherworldly standards.

The walls didn’t crumble all at once for the Tide. In the very first season NIL payments were allowed, Alabama would go on to reach the national championship game. Since then, it’s been a slow trend towards becoming a great program rather than the best in college football.

Here in year three of the Kalen DeBoer era, the pressure has been cranked up to an 11/10. Most schools would be ecstatic with a conference championship and a playoff win in their head coach's second year. But in the words of Mike Tomlin, “the standard is the standard”, and at Bama, that means national titles.

Look away if you’re a Crimson Tide faithful, but I think this Bama team is much closer to comfortably missing the playoffs than they are to winning a title.

Let’s start with the positives first. As much vitriol as DeBoer has seen during his Bama tenure, he has been great at getting the most out of a quarterback. With uncertainty at the position, I still expect great play from Keelon Russell or Austin Mack, whoever wins the starting job.

It should be fairly easy to get great quarterback play when you can throw the ball to Ryan Coleman-Williams, but second and third options at the position are more of a question mark. Noah Rogers would likely be the number two at receiver, but he will start the season hurt. Who will be able to replace him outside until he makes it back on the field?

On the other side of the ball, the defense should be good, but not elite. The secondary should once again be one of the better units in the country, but I’m not sold on their pass rush. They lost some guys to the portal in a unit that didn’t really impress me much last year. They struggled against more talented offenses and did very little to slow down any team with a great playcaller.

The biggest concern for Bama is the offensive line. Their 2025 offensive line might have been the worst we’ve seen this century. It’s not often that Alabama gets bullied off the ball. They gave up 32 sacks last season, and that number could have been far worse if Ty Simpson was constantly playing hero ball to bail them out.

Worse than their inability to pass block, the Tide had one of the worst rushing attacks in the country, averaging just 92.6 yards per game, good for 129th in the country. I don’t think enough has been done to fix these issues. Whether from a lack of talent or poor coaching, I think the line is going to be trouble once again for Bama.

However, even if the offensive line is bad, they have to be a threat to run the ball. I expect Keelon Russell to be the starter this year, but it’s going to be incredibly difficult to expect much out of a 19-year-old when the offense around him can’t get anything on the ground.

Alabama’s win total is currently set at 8.5, and I’m not sure I’d take the over. They've got Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at LSU on the schedule. Outside of the Tennessee game, I don’t think they’ll be favored in any of those matchups on game day. I don’t think they go 0-4 in that stretch, but 1-3 won’t surprise.

That then leaves Vanderbilt, Florida State, and Auburn, who could all cause issues for the Tide as well. I don’t think it’s crazy to think Alabama might just be an 8-win team in 2026.