Baker Mayfield’s MVP Case: Why the Buccaneers QB Is a Legit Contender in 2025

Baker Mayfield deserves to be in the MVP conversation.

The 30-year-old quarterback is entering his ninth season in the NFL, and with +2500 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Mayfield should at least be in consideration to take home the award.

He’s been a trendy pick. But the 2018 No. 1 overall selection is entering the perfect scenario.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned every single offensive starter — something that almost never happens in the NFL. Oh yeah, and they used their first-round pick on Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka to play alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Mayfield was quietly incredible in 2024. He threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, completing 71% of his passes. That’s elite production, and if he can match it, folks will believe last season wasn’t simply a flash in the pan.

So he’s got the weapons. He has the stats from last season to back it up. And things somehow get better for Mayfield's MVP case.

The NFC South.

The New Orleans Saints should be the favorite to have the No. 1 overall pick in 2026. Their quarterback competition, headlined by rookie Tyler Shough, couldn’t be going worse.

The Atlanta Falcons should be better with Michael Penix Jr. and a defense they invested serious capital into, but that franchise just seems cursed ever since getting Tom Brady’d in the Super Bowl. As fun as Penix seems, his preseason success could be a byproduct of how bad Kirk Cousins was. Penix completed 58% of his passes for 775 yards, three touchdowns and three picks. You could see that going belly up.

The Jacksonville Jaguars put a lot of faith in Travis Hunter, who has not gotten any work with the first-team defense yet this offseason. The do-it-all Heisman winner from Colorado is likely going to make huge splashes with Trevor Lawrence on the offensive side of the ball, but that defense is still suspect.

Mostly because of playing in the laughable NFC South, the Buccaneers have the 10th-easiest schedule in the league.

Of course, quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson (+430), Josh Allen (+600) and Joe Burrow (+600) are the frontrunners to win MVP, as they should be. Even two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes (+650), Jayden Daniels (+1000) and Justin Herbert (+2000) have solid cases to win it.

But Mayfield has a prime opportunity on his hands. The player the league almost completely gave up on has found new life in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have stood by their Tom Brady successor. And if Mayfield wins his first career MVP, it would be one of the coolest stories in recent NFL history.