Best MLB Bets for Wednesday, September 17th: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

Tough night last night, let’s try to get it back today! I have my eye on a couple games with huge playoff implications.

Season Record: 12-10-2, +1.95 Units

Guardians at Tigers

Guardians ML (+125 BetMGM)

Jack Flaherty is a really tough pitcher to predict, as those of us who roster him on Fantasy teams are well aware. Here are some recent starts against teams ranked in the top half of MLB by wRC+.

9/10 at Yankees (116 wRC+) – 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 1 BB, 7 K’s

8/01 at Phillies (110 wRC+) – 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 hits, 3 BB, 7 K

7/27 vs. Toronto (114 wRC+) – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 7 K’s

And here he is vs. some bad MLB offenses:

9/05 vs White Sox (88 wRC+) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB, 2 K

8/24 vs Royals (90 wRC+) – 5 IP, 8 ER, 10 hits, 3 K

8/12 at White Sox – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 hits, 1 BB, 6 K

7/21 at Pirates (81 wRC+) – 3 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, 3 BB, 6 K

The Guardians have an 86 wRC+, 3rd worst in MLB, which makes them super likely to shell Flaherty based on his recent patterns. Gavin Williams of the Guardians is not as good as his 3.16 ERA suggests, as it’s propped up a bit by a 83% Strand rate and opponents’ low .250 BABIP despite no sign he’s great at limiting hard contact. He’s also got a high 12% BB%.

On the plus side, he’s got a decent 23% K% and 26.9 Whiff% that’s 65th percentile, and the Tigers have the 3rd highest K% in the league vs. righties.

Cleveland has played pretty well lately as they’re on a 15-5 run back to August 26th and their bats are actually a shade above league average in September. I’ll back Williams and the Guardians as road dogs here.

Giants at Diamondbacks

Giants ML (-102 FanDuel)

In a game with surprisingly huge playoff implications, we get the Giants and Justin Verlander at the DBacks and Brandon Pfaadt.

The DBacks traded Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Randall Grichuk at the deadline, and have since lost Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Pavin Smith to injury. Yet their offense remains nearly as good; 109 wRC+ before the deadline, 104 after.

The Giants sold at the deadline too, though just relievers. But the offense has picked up, mostly thanks to Rafael Devers and Willi Adames power surges as they each have 12 homers since August 1st.

I like the Giants tonight mostly on account of Verlander turning back the clock lately. In his last 4 starts he has a 1.13 ERA and an identical 1.13 WHIP over 24 IP.

Pfaadt has had just a brutal year all around with a 5.31 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and it's trending worse as he’s been rocked for at least 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.