Best MLB Bets Today: Picks, Predictions, Props For Thursday May 15th

With the weekend approaching, several teams are taking Thursday off again this week. But we’ve still got six games on deck for your betting pleasure—starting early with the Nationals and Braves at 12:15 p.m. EDT. So, who makes our “Best MLB Bets” list for the day?

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

Pick: Braves -1.5 at -108
Total: Under 9 at -120
SGP Odds: +244 (FanDuel)

The pitching matchup says it all here. Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed just one earned run across his last two starts and only six hits total. Meanwhile, Nationals starter Trevor Williams has given up four runs in each of his last two starts—and 16 hits overall.

Washington’s lineup is struggling to make contact, hitting under .200 over the last week. There’s no reason to think they’ll come alive against Smith-Shawver. The Braves aren’t exactly mashing (.243 average over the past week), but they should do enough damage against Williams to cover the run line without the total getting too high.

A $100 wager results in a $344 payout—your stake plus $244 in winnings.

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles

Picks:

• Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run +360 (DraftKings)
• Ryan Mountcastle to hit a home run +500

Camden Yards leads the league in home runs this season with more than 68. Minnesota has gone deep in every game against Baltimore this season, both in Minneapolis and in Baltimore. In yesterday’s doubleheader, the two teams combined for eight more.

With both pitchers having allowed seven homers across eight starts, expect the long ball to make an appearance. At the time of writing, odds for Minnesota players were not available, but if you see any listed, consider Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee or Kody Clemens.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Picks:

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run +330 (FanDuel)
• Bo Bichette to hit a home run +600
• Ernie Clement to hit a home run +900

Sluggers have been feasting at Rogers Centre this year—61 home runs and counting. Rays starter Zach Eflin has given up 10 home runs in eight starts, with eight of those coming in just three games. Expect someone in the Blue Jays lineup to go deep.

The two teams combined for seven home runs in Game 1 of the series, and Toronto added another yesterday. Guerrero Jr. is hitting .349 over the past week. Bichette is hitting .292 in that span with two home runs, while Clement is on fire—batting .478 with one homer.

Houston Astros (+1.5) vs. Texas Rangers

Total: Under 7.5 at -122

One thing is certain in this matchup: Don’t expect much offense. Houston starter Hunter Brown has blanked opponents in four of his last six outings, and in six of eight starts, he’s allowed four hits or fewer.

Texas ace Jacob deGrom hasn’t quite matched Brown, but his 2.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP say plenty. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last five starts.

Add in a Houston bullpen with a 2.78 ERA (among the best in the league) and a solid Rangers pen (3.80 ERA), and you’ve got all the makings of a low-scoring game.