Best MLB Bets Today: Top Picks & Props for Friday, May 16th

The weekend is here, and it’s a great day to bet on MLB. There are several intriguing matchups taking place across the country today, and quite a few bets worthy of your consideration. All of them, of course, can’t make my list of Best MLB Bets for Friday, May 16.

As always, line shop to make sure you get the best odds for your desired markets. But for our purposes, the odds will come from FanDuel (unless otherwise stated).

Chicago White Sox (+188) vs. Chicago Cubs (-1.5), o/u 12.5

I can’t figure out why the total on this game is so high. The Cubs are hitting .191 over the last week; the White Sox, .206. Shane Smith has been taking care of business when he takes the mound for the White Sox (2.08 ERA).

Cade Horton’s ERA is high (6.75), but he gave up just three runs in his one start. As long as Ryan Pressly doesn’t implode again, the final score should be well under 12.5.

Pick: Under 12.5

Detroit Tigers (-1.5) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+108), o/u 8.5

Here we have two teams that have been doing a great job making contact over the last week and scoring runs—both are averaging six runs per game over that span. With two pitchers who have a nasty habit of giving up home runs in the second-most home run-friendly park in baseball, we might see both teams push the total past 8.5.

Pick: Over 8.5

Houston Astros (+154) vs. Texas Rangers (-185), o/u 8

Prop: Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+1000)

He only has four so far this season and is hitting just .250. But he’s faced Nathan Eovaldi in 52 at-bats, making 17 hits—nine of which went for extra bases, including seven home runs. While he hasn’t been crushing the ball this year, his history with Eovaldi gives this market value.

SGP: Adolis Garcia 1+ hit (-185), Marcus Semien 1+ hit (-180)
SGP Odds: +122

I’d like to think Lance McCullers Jr. will not be as bad in this outing as he was in his last. But even if he doesn’t give up seven runs in a third of an inning again, I’d expect the Rangers to make contact and get on base.

Garcia is hitting just .231 but is 3-for-8 lifetime vs. McCullers. Semien has been terrible at the plate this season (.176), but he has a solid history vs. McCullers (9-for-22). Since both have minus-money odds, I opted to combine them in a same-game parlay to boost the potential payout.

Oakland Athletics (+1.5) vs. San Francisco Giants (-172), o/u 7.5

A’s pitcher JP Sears has been better on the road (3–1, 2.32 ERA, .200 opponent batting average) than at home. But Giants pitcher Logan Webb is practically unstoppable at home (2–0 in three starts, 0.44 ERA, .218 OBA).

The A’s are hitting well over the past week (.277 BA), while the Giants have not been as fortunate (.238). But with how well both starters are pitching right now, I don’t expect to see too many hits—and even fewer runs.

Pick: Under 7.5