Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Divisional Round Betting Picks

The Denver Broncos will host the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The Broncos are coming off a first-round bye, gaining extra rest compared to the field. The Bills are coming off an impressive late-game comeback against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This is the perfect spot where we can back the Denver defense while also fading their offense.

The Bills feature an outstanding offense, ranking sixth in the NFL in points (.444) per play this season. They’ve seen mixed results offensively on the road, though. That number dips to .399 outside of Buffalo this season. They’re also averaging only 25.2 points per game on the road compared to 31.2 at home in 2025.

The Broncos boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, though. They rank third in the NFL in points allowed (.293) per game this season. They’ve also been dominant at home, where that number drops to .288. Ultimately, they’re giving up only 17.8 points per game at home this season.

This is a Buffalo offense that Josh Allen is going to power to points. They have the ways to beat this Denver defense, but it isn’t going to be easy. Overall, I give the edge to the Broncos, but I do expect some explosive plays from Allen and company to find points.

On the other side, we know the Bills don’t have a good defense. The key is that you beat them on the ground, though. They feature one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and teams can grind out wins against them with chunk plays from their running backs.

The Broncos just aren’t an offense that is going to lean on their running game. They rank 22nd in the NFL in running play percentage (41.76%) this season. They much prefer to rely on Bo Nix than they do their backfield.

I don’t expect Denver to change their entire identity for this game specifically, and I also believe that’s going to limit their offense. It’s hard to believe they aren’t overrated at the moment, and we could get a more defensive game than people are expecting.

Ultimately, we’re looking for the red zone defenses to step up here, as I believe this will be a battle of field goals.

Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos UNDER 46.5 points | -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 27–44