College Basketball Best Bets: Two Picks for Wednesday's Mid-Major Slate

A long while back, a gambling buddy of mine told me something that sticks with me to this day. I was laughing about how each season, I’ll find four or five small conferences, and I’d bet those teams. I was betting a lot of MAAC and SoCon basketball back then, and he told me the most important thing.

“Whether it is Duke, Fairfield or The Citadel, a winner is a winner. They all pay the same.”

As we head into Wednesday’s slate of games, keep that in mind. First off, don’t try and bet all 300+ Division I teams. Unless you intend on making it your primary job to know about injuries, trends, etc. for that many teams, or you have some sort of logarithm helping you out, it’s physically not possible, and you’ll lose more than you win. Trust me. I’ve tried. Get to know a few conferences well, and know everything about those teams. Watch the games, too. Most are readily available online in some way or fashion.

CAL POLY VS. GRAND CANYON

The Mustangs (1-1) and the Antelopes (2-0) meet in Phoenix at the Global Credit Union Arena on Wednesday, with a tip time set for 9 p.m. ET on MW+.

Cal Poly held its own against a ranked Arizona team last time out on Thursday, falling 104-84, while covering as a 30.5-point underdog as the Over (174.5) cashed. In fact, the Mustangs ended up covering that game wire-to-wire.

Cal Poly guard Hamad Mousa is a beast, and he was feeling it against the Wildcats, going for 30 points, including 8 of 10 from behind the perimeter, and he is going to get a lot of open looks against a Grand Canyon team whose specialty isn’t exactly defense.

The Antelopes have fired out of the gate with a pair of victories over HBCU’s, downing Texas Southern 103-79 on Nov. 2, while toppling Bethune Cookman 99-81 on Saturday. GRC failed to cover either of those games.

Although a 21.0 points per game margin of victory is still impressive, it allowed 80.0 PPG to two teams not exactly known for piling up the points. The Over easily cashed in those two outings, and we’re certainly expecting the high scores to continue. Go OVER 181.5 (-110) for the best bet, and we’ll back CAL POLY +18.5 (-115) as the underdog.

CHICAGO STATE VS. CAL BAPTIST

Sticking in the Big West Conference, we look to the Lancers (0-2) of Cal Baptist host the Cougars (1-2) of Chicago State.

Perennially, Chicago State has been a doormat worth playing against, especially in these early-season matchups. While Chicago State did score an outright win at Incarnate Word last Thursday, it was humbled by 15 points against South Carolina State last time out as a 1.5-point favorite.

The Cougars are back on the road, and the Lancers are primed for their first outright victory and cover of the season. These teams have actually have a fairly extensive history from their time together in the WAC for a few seasons. Cal Baptist is 6-1 in the past seven meetings since Jan. 12, 2019, and a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past four encounters at home.

Take CAL BAPTIST -11.5 (-120) to get its first win and cover, and we’ll go OVER 139.5 (-110) for the total.