College Basketball Feast Week Predictions: Top Bets and Maui Invitational Winner

The Monday before Thanksgiving can only mean one thing: It’s time for college basketball fans to feast on one of their sport’s best weeks of the year — Feast Week.

Going by last week’s rankings (the new AP poll is out at 1 p.m. ET), 13 of the 25 ranked teams are in action Monday, with nine of those participating in the Players Era men’s tournament out in Sin City.

Two of today’s best bets focus on individual Players Era games, but let’s not forget the tournament with a much grander history that’s getting overshadowed — the Maui Invitational. We’ll wrap up by crowning a Maui favorite and making sure you get in on the action before this team’s odds shrink as the week goes on.

No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. Syracuse Orange, 6 p.m. ET

It’s easy to get excited about Michigan State, Purdue and Arizona with their big-time victories this month — I’m high on all three teams — but Houston keeps reloading and flying under the radar. Apart from one stretch early last season, the Cougs have spent barely any time outside the top five of the AP poll since the start of the 2022-23 season.

Kelvin Sampson will sic the No. 1 KenPom defense on a Syracuse program that’s fared poorly against the spread vs. ranked teams under coach Adrian Autry (1-6-0). The Orange’s metrics are inflated from romps over bad teams in their first three games, but they looked shaky last time out when they struggled to close out a 78-73 win over Monmouth and shot 19-of-33 from the foul line in their own building.

Houston to cover -13.5, -102 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

No. 14 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones, 4:30 p.m. ET

This is one of two Players Era games on Monday that pit a pair of ranked teams (Gonzaga–Alabama is the other). St. John’s lost its first big test of the season by seven to Alabama, but it has put up at least 93 points in all four games so far. And with all due respect to Iowa State, which has a good set of shooters, the Crimson Tide are tougher to keep up with than the Cyclones.

Iowa State has also played one SEC team this season, and while the Cyclones beat Mississippi State 96-80, they yielded 50% shooting with 11 made threes and got outrebounded by six. Not trying to disrespect Mississippi State, but St. John’s has multiple NBA prospects and athletic bigs that the Bulldogs don’t. The matchup feels like it favors the Red Storm, and on a neutral floor, picking them straight-up doesn’t feel like much of an upset.

St. John’s moneyline, +118 (FanDuel)

Maui Invitational outright winner

I won’t try to parse the favorites to win the bloated Players Era event, where multiple teams are likely to go 2-0 and still miss the championship game based on point differential and other tiebreakers. But Maui is a beautifully simple eight-team bracket, and the team with the best path is clearly No. 25 North Carolina State.

The Wolfpack open Monday afternoon against Seton Hall, a team with a statistically impressive defense but one that struggled against the likes of Wagner and Monmouth this month. In the semis, they would face the winner between USC and Boise State; the Trojans needed triple-overtime to avoid an upset by Troy, and Boise has had narrow wins following a stunning loss to D2 Hawaii Pacific on opening night.

NC State is top-10 nationally in field-goal percentage (53.8%) and threes made per game (13.3). The Wolfpack have five players averaging double figures, and Will Wade is a hell of a coach. Between their talent and their favorable path, it’s NC State’s tournament to lose.

NC State to win Maui Invitational, +170 (FanDuel Sportsbook)