Pirates vs. Brewers August 3 Prediction, Odds, Best Betting Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-57) and the Milwaukee Brewers (69-42) meet at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Monday for the first meeting in a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.

The Pirates have been sinking like a stone in the National League Central Division, dropping five of the past six games, while going a dismal 3-8 in the past 11 games since July 22.

For the first-place Brewers, who are 6.5 games clear of the Chicago Cubs, they enter with two wins in a three-game series over the weekend, completing a 3-3 West Coast road trip. The Brew Crew are 10-3 in the past 13 games at American Family Field, winning four consecutive series in the process on their home turf.

Pittsburgh turns to RHP Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), who has managed 104 ⅔ IP across 20 starts and one relief appearance. He faced Milwaukee at PNC Park in the Steel City on July 11, allowing two runs, five hits and three walks while striking out six batters in 4 ⅔ IP in a no-decision.

The Pirates have dropped three of the past four starts by Chandler on the road. While Chandler is 1-5 on the road, he has a respectable 4.38 ERA and 1.35 WHIP away from home.

For Milwaukee, it counters with RHP Brandon Sproat (3-6, 5.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), who has 96 strikeouts across just 92 ⅔ IP in 18 starts and two relief appearances. Lately, Sproat has picked up the pace a bit, going 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA across his past seven starts, improving ever so slightly.

The Brewers have dropped the past three games with Sproat on the hill, although the past two games he has received zero runs of support in a pair of shutout losses. At home, Sproat is 2-3 with a subpar 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP across eight starts and nine appearances in just 40 ⅔ IP.

While the Brewers have a comfortable cushion in the NL Central standings, they’ve had a devil of a time trying to solve the Pirates. Pittsburgh swept a three-game series in the Steel City July 11-12, while it has taken five of the past five meetings against Milwaukee. The Over and Under have alternated in each of the past eight encounters in this series since Sept. 6, 2025.

Based on the series trends, and the awful work of Sproat, we’re going to side with PIRATES (+128) as moderate underdogs. But, based on the very giving ways of both Chandler on the road, and Sproat at home, we’re going to lean OVER 4.5 RUNS - FIRST 5 INNINGS (-122). If you like the latter, you should also feel confident going high on the game total, too, going OVER 8.5 RUNS (-104).