Guardians vs. Reds Monday Prediction: Best Bets for the Battle of Ohio

The Cleveland Guardians (54-53) and the Cincinnati Reds (49-55) meet at Great American Ball Park on the banks of the Ohio River in the battle of the Buckeye State. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.

As luck has it, I am in the Queen City this week, and if the kids get tired of Kings Island Amusement Park in the next couple of days, I wouldn’t mind finding our way over to the yard for some ball, dogs with Skyline Chili and other various ballpark snacks.

The Guardians had a rough time on the Suncoast of Florida, as the Tampa Bay Rays not only swept Cleveland, but the Guards were shut out in each of the final two games of the series. The Cleveland pitching staff bounced back after an 11-3 loss Friday, as it allowed just four runs in the past two outings. However, the offense needs to do something, or management needs to go out and grab a bat.

Meanwhile, the Reds did a good job at Busch Stadium II in St. Louis, picking up two wins in three at-bats to win the series. That’s the third consecutive series victory for Cincinnati, who improved to 6-3 in the past nine games, all on the road.

The last time we saw Cincinnati at GABP, it suffered a series loss to the division-rival Chicago Cubs July 10-12. In fact, while the Reds have won three straight series on the road, they’ve dropped four consecutive series at home, going 3-9 in the past 12 outings, including two series losses against division rivals.

Cleveland turns to RHP Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) to snap the team’s skid. The Guardians are in a tailspin, losing each of the past five games, while scoring just four total runs in the past four outings. As luck has it, the last time it had an offensive eruption, it scored six for Cecconi at home against the Minnesota Twins last Wednesday, but the Twins dropped a 10-spot.

Cincinnati counters with RHP Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) across his 19 starts this season. He has been a godsend for the Cincinnati rotation, especially since he has accounted for 24.5% of the team’s victory total.

The Reds need Burns to stay hot, as Cleveland won two of three meetings with Cincinnati at Progressive Field May 15-17, with the Guardians averaging 7.7 runs per game (RPG) in the three-game set. It’s baseball, and Cleveland is due after getting blanked in back-to-back games. But, it still seems rather improbable it will explode against one of the best pitchers, statistically, in the National League.

While the Over cashed in the first three meetings in Cleveland in mid-May, the lean is to the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

And while you’ll be eating a little bit more chalk than I’d like, REDS ML (-174) is a strong play based on the red-hot Burns, and the ice-cold Cleveland offense. Let’s just hope Cecconi doesn’t get tuned up. The Reds have won four of five games, with the Under going 4-1 in that span. Cincinnati has totaled 18 runs in the past six games (3.0 RPG), while allowing just 17 runs (3.4 RPG) in the past five outings. A same-game parlay (SGP) is a solid +183, which is worth a roll of the dice.