College Football Futures: Bet the Over on These Three CFB Win Totals

There is a championship defense in South Bend, where the offense is built behind a powerful offensive line and arguably the top running back in the nation.

With a favorable schedule again, there is a lot to like about Notre Dame, even if others are stressing uncertainty at quarterback after redshirt freshman CJ Carr won the competition in fall camp.

The risk in taking full measurements of a team in August when reviewing the futures market on college football win totals is ignoring some of the simple winning factors that help bring the long view into focus.

Our college football crew can be your eyes and ears with these value picks for 2025 win totals — and a couple of untouchables for good measure.

Here are our top values:

Notre Dame (over 9.5 wins)

If you are still having visions of Thomas Hammond and Northern Illinois dancing in your head, your heart is too close to the Irish. Upsets happen, and even Touchdown Jesus is not immune to the occasional avert-your-eyes defeat.

But Notre Dame is being raked over the coals for all the wrong reasons. Yes, redshirt freshman QB CJ Carr is green. He will throw his first pass as a college QB in a high-profile matchup at Miami next week. But the Irish are built to win with a behemoth offensive line blocking for Jeremiyah Love (6.9 yards per carry last season) and a defense that should have significant bite.

Even if theorized reasons for playing the under — such as Carr’s inexperience, improved USC and Georgia Tech teams, and the longest college football season ever taking a toll on the Irish — partially pan out, Marcus Freeman has also landed a load of talent to build his two-deep and survive an injury or three.

Georgia (over 9.5 wins)

When are we going to stop doubting Kirby Smart?

The Bulldogs play 12 games, and the slate brings Texas and Alabama to Athens. Even a split of those games — no team has a longer home-field winning streak than Georgia’s current 31-gamer — keeps 10 wins in play. Smart has not lost three regular-season games since his first campaign at UGA.

With another loaded recruiting class and a willingness to embrace transfers in key roles, Smart keeps this machine rolling. You can doubt Smart’s quarterback, of course, because he is unproven. Gunner Stockton is QB1 with Carson Beck exiting after his SEC title game elbow injury for greener pastures in Miami. If you believed Beck was the reason Georgia got back to the College Football Playoff last season, we would like to show you pictures of a bridge we are willing to sell.

Florida (over 7.5 wins)

We kicked around another SEC candidate to have a splashy season, but South Carolina’s schedule and multiple unproven parts made the Gamecocks more of a risk. Florida’s schedule is by no means light, but this is the SEC, with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25 and a history of finding its way to the big trophy games in December and beyond.

Are the Gators a national title contender? Not convinced.

But Florida’s talent stacks up with most on its schedule, and the great equalizer of a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in DJ Lagway is compelling enough to get behind Florida as an eight-win threat.

There are some leaps of faith involved in backing this wager, not the least of which being this three-game stretch starting in September — at LSU, at Miami and vs. Texas — where things could go sideways and get, well, swampy before the leaves change colors.

We are not sold on the Hurricanes at the moment, and Texas will be in Gainesville one week prior to the Red River Rivalry.