College Football Playoff Full First-Round Betting Picks and Predictions

We’ve finally made it to the College Football Playoff. There’s no more complaining about who’s in and who’s out; we finally get to watch what could be an exciting slate of games. Last year's first round featured many upsets, but that was before changes to the bracket format. 

Hopefully, we get a few good first-round games, which could lead to a very exciting quarter-finals. Let’s get into the picks.

#9 Alabama vs #8 Oklahoma (-1.5) Total: 40.5

Out of every team playing in the first round, Oklahoma has the best unit of any of these eight teams. Their defense is one of the best in the country, and they already gave Alabama problems in Tuscaloosa just three games ago. Alabama has been the least inspiring offense coming into the playoffs, and I have zero confidence that will change. Also, a few extra weeks off is just what John Mateer needs to get back closer to 100%. Oklahoma is my favorite play of the week.

Pick: Oklahoma -1.5
Lean: u40.5

#10 Miami vs #7 Texas A&M (-3.5) Total 48.5

Similar to what Ohio State did with Jeremiah Smith last year, Miami can force-feed the ball to Malachi Toney for immediate offense. Down the stretch, Texas A&M showed they can’t slow down a potent passing attack, so if Carson Beck plays a clean, safe game, I don’t see why they can’t pull off the upset. Miami is the third-best team in the playoffs at forcing turnovers, and Marcell Reed has thrown at least two interceptions in three out of his last four games against FBS opponents. I’ve been high on Miami all year, and that doesn’t change in this one.

Pick: Miami +3.5
Lean: u48.5

#11 Tulane vs #6 Ole Miss (-17.5) Total 56.5

We already saw this exact matchup earlier this season, and Jake Retzalff showed no ability to move the ball against the Rebels. He’s been great as a dual-threat option for Tulane this year, but I just don’t think the Green Wave will have the passing attack to soften Ole Miss’ defense enough to establish the run. On the other hand, I don’t think Ole Miss will open the playbook too much in this one. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tulane stays within the number just because Ole Miss plays this one very safe and doesn’t ask too much out of Trinidad Chambliss. On the other hand, Ole Miss might want to run it up just to shove it to Lane Kiffin. The under is the only play I really like in this one.

Pick: u56.5

#12 JMU vs #5 Oregon (-21) Total 47.5

Oregon is objectively the better team in this game, but I really think JMU keeps this game close, at least in the first half. The Dukes have a defense that can compete with the big dogs of college football, and nothing about Oregon’s offense makes me believe that they’re built to blow anyone out. Indiana, Washington, Wisconsin, and Iowa were all able to muck up Oregon’s offense in the second half of the season, and I think JMU could do the same.

 Also, with two QB options, Alonza Barnett and Matthew Sluka, I think we could see some trickery from head coach Bob Chesney. I don’t love it, but I’m betting on the Dukes to cover.

Pick: JMU +21
Lean: o47.5