College Football Week 6 Betting Picks: Alabama, Miami, Virginia, and Texas A&M

After a couple of weeks of struggling, I finally had a better week on the books. 5-3 on official picks to keep me well above .500 on the season, and a huge bounce back 4-1 in leans was precisely what we needed at this point in the season. Last week was a fantastic slate of games, so having winning bets to go along with it is the cherry on top.

This week, it’s a smaller slate of games. Regardless, it’s still another opportunity to win some games. Let’s get into the picks.

#16 Vanderbilt (5-0) vs #10 Alabama (3-1) -10.5 | Total: 55.5

Could this game be a battle of the two best (healthy) quarterbacks in the SEC? It very well could be; however, only one of these secondaries has any ability to slow down a passing attack, and that’s Alabama.

The Tide are only giving up 113 passing yards a game, third best in the nation. This secondary, and defense as a whole, will be put to the test against a Vanderbilt offense that leads the nation in scoring at 50 a game.

I’m not sure how the total in this game is only 55.5; I think this one goes way over. Also, I think Vandy’s defense is going to be so inferior to Alabama’s. I would be shocked if Bama didn’t cover the spread as well.

Picks: o55.5 and Alabama (-10.5)

#3 Miami (4-0) -4.5 vs #18 Florida State (3-1) | Total: 54.5

Even after Oregon’s impressive win at Penn State, I still believe Miami is a top-two team in the country. They’ve had the most consistent line play on both sides of the ball and are one of the more talented teams in the country.

This is a statement game for me. Miami walks into Doak Campbell Stadium, and they punk Florida State. Virginia is not a very good ACC team (I’ll get to that in a second), and no playoff contender has any business losing to them, no matter where the game’s played.

Take Miami in this one, and also lean towards the over, and Thomas Castellanos will still be able to move the ball a little for the Seminoles.

Pick: Miami (-4)
Lean: o54.5

#24 Virginia (4-1) vs Louisville (4-0) -6.5 | Total: 60.5

I just got done explaining that Virginia isn’t an outstanding team, but unfortunately, I also think Louisville are massive frauds at 4-0.

This game is simple for me. Virginia’s offense is well-coached, ranking 8th in the country in total points and 10th in total yards. They can score, but they also can’t stop anything, especially a decent run game, which Louisville has. The only thing I like in this one is the over.

Lean: o60.5

Mississippi St (4-1) vs Texas A&M (4-0) -16.5 | Total: 57.5

This line has climbed to a point where I really don’t want to take Texas A&M, but after all the incredible things I have said about them this year, this is not the moment to abandon ship.

This game feels like one where you can’t just look at last week's scores and bet on it. Mississippi State almost took down an overrated Tennessee team at home, and the Aggies stumbled by a very average Auburn team; however, the score doesn’t paint the complete picture of how lopsided that one truly was.

Plug your nose and bet on Texas A&M. It stinks to the high heavens, but Mississippi State’s 5-0 record against the spread will come to a halt in this one.

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2025 Record:
Picks: 23-17
Leans: 10-14