Deadspin’s 2021 NFL Divisional Round picks you can bank on - Day 2

Dustin Foote|published: Sun 17th January, 10:45 2021

Hindsight is 20/20. But in 2021 you should’ve known to take underdogs on Wild Card Weekend and favorites in Saturday’s Divisional round.

Yesterday, both the Packers and Bills beat their opponents by 14. So will we actually see an upset this weekend? Yes, but you’ll probably have to wait till tonight.

Here’s who I like today.

Browns at Chiefs (-10)

source: Getty Images

The Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. Tell ‘em what they’ve won! A visit to the 14-2 reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs off a bye.

Oh.

At the end of the regular season, KC ranked first in total offense, Cleveland 16th. KC ranked first in passing yards per game, Cleveland — 24th. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt might cause problems for a Chiefs defense that gives up, on average, 122.1 rushing yards per game. So can the Browns cover the largest spread of the weekend?

Pick: Kansas City’s last seven wins have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Chiefs haven’t won a game by 10 since November 1. This double digit spread is a little scary but I think KC will cover. If it’s normalcy we seek in 2021, then I expect Patrick Mahomes to have a field day against the Browns defense.

Weather: 38° and cloudy — just cold enough for a few meatheads to attend the game shirtless (hopefully not maskless).

Bucs at Saints (-3.5)

source: Getty Images

Tom Brady and Drew Brees are old. Like, record breaking old. Their combined age is 85, making this the oldest QB matchup in NFL postseason history. But these grizzled vets are playing pretty well. Brady’s Tompa offense ranked second in passing yards per game and third in points per game in the regular season. Brees only played 12 games in 2020, but he posted a 106.4 passer rating — ahead of Russell Wilson and, yes, Tom Brady. This game could be a shootout. So which geezer do you like?

Pick: No one has beat Tom Brady three times in one season. Like, ever. I should have more analysis in this paragraph, but that stat makes me want to take Tampa. So I will. Bet the points here.

Weather: Whatever the thermostat reads. This game is in a dome, folks.