Dustin Poirier Has “Curse of Paulo Costa” Working In His Favor For UFC 302

Islam Makhachev’s lightweight championship belt is at large on Saturday night.

The stars are aligning for the underdog in this fight, Dustin Poirier, who seemingly has fate on his side ahead of this matchup.

“The Paulo Costa Curse” is a real thing that the MMA community refuses to ignore. Whenever Costa fights on a PPV undercard, not the main event, no champion has ever successfully defended and retained their title. Regardless of how Costa performs, the champion always finds a way to lose their belt.

It started at UFC 212 where Jose Aldo lost to Max Holloway. Costa was back on the card for UFC 217, where Michael Bisping, Cody Garbrandt, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk each lost their belt.

But the madness continues. And remember, Costa’s outcome in these PPVs don’t matter, it’s simply his presence that has been a curse on defending champs.

In UFC 226, Stipe Miocic lost his belt to Daniel Cormier. In UFC 241, Miocic defeated Cormier and won his belt back. In UFC 278, Kamaru Usman was defeated by Leon Edwards. Most recently, Illia Topuria upset Alexander Volkanovski in UFC 298. 

As you can see, the Curse of Costa is 8-0. Undefeated. As LaVar Ball used to say, “Neva lost.”

Costa will appear on the undercard for UFC 302 in a middleweight bout against Sean Strickland. While Costa is a +200 underdog in his own fight, the MMA gambling community is excited for what this means for Poirier’s long odds.

Poirier is a +450 underdog for his title fight against Makhachev. The 35 year-old Poirier is in for a true test as his opponent has won 13 straight bouts.

But the good fate doesn’t end at the Costa Curse for Poirier. 

He’s 2-0 in the Tri-State area, and this fight will take place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. 

Poirier is also 6-0 in the month of June. This fight will take place on June 1, 2024.

He’s been winning in June since 2009, where he submitted Nate Jolly. Other wins in the month of June include victories over Derek Gauthier, Jason Young, Yancy Mederios, Bobby Green and Dan Hooker, who was Poirer’s last opponent in the month of June in 2020.

Even with the fate of Costa, the month of June, and New Jersey on the challenger’s side, Makhachev won’t be an easy opponent. If you’re looking for a reason to back the heavy favorite as Makhachev looks to defend his title, male fighters in the welterweight division and below, aged 35 or older, are just 2-24 in championship fights.