Elite 8 Best Bets for Sunday, March 30: Top Picks & Expert Predictions

The fantastic thing about this stage of the tournament is that we can rest assured of one thing: Every game left is going to be exciting to watch. That, of course, can make it harder to figure out how to bet, but that is where our “Best Bets” list can come in handy.

I’ve done a deep dive into both of Sunday’s Elite Eight games and compiled a list of what I consider the best bets of the day.

Houston (-3) vs. Tennessee +135

UNDER 123.5 points at -110

This might be the easiest decision of the tournament.

Here you have a Houston defense that ranks No. 1 in the country (58.5 points per game allowed) and Tennessee’s No. 8-ranked defense (62.8 points per game allowed). Neither offense is bad—or exceptional. At best, they can be described as good enough and complementary to polished defenses.

But mediocre offense can be controlled by dominant defense. That will be the case in what may end up being the lowest-scoring game of the tournament.

L.J. Cryer, UNDER 2.5 Threes Made at -107

He’s Houston’s leading scorer, and he’s made 11 threes in tournament games (averaging 3.7 per game). After hitting just one of five attempts against Purdue, it would be easy to say he’s due. But the Vols play great perimeter defense, and I expect they’ll try their best to keep Cryer in check.

Felix Okpara UNDER 6.5 Rebounds at -164
Igor Milicic Jr., UNDER 4.5 Rebounds at -133
Same-game parlay odds: +197

Okpara is coming off an 11-rebound game vs. Kentucky and had seven vs. UCLA. Milicic has been unreliable on the boards in tournament play, recording three, seven and four. I wouldn’t say Houston necessarily has a standout rebounder, but J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Turner both average around six.

I’m banking on Houston being solid on the offensive boards and keeping the Vols limited.

Michigan State (+178) vs. Auburn (-4.5)

Auburn -4.5

I expect this game to have a lot of similarities to Auburn-Michigan. The Tigers were 9.5-point favorites, but the Wolverines looked more ready to play in the first half than Auburn. But the Tigers were the better team and proved as much with a 48-36 second half.

It is not hard to see this game as a potential upset pick with how well the Spartans have been playing. But Auburn is the better of the two teams here. That may not be apparent in the first half, but it will be in the second.

Denver Jones, OVER 1.5 Threes Made at -158
Johni Broome, OVER 11.5 Rebounds at -110
Same-game parlay odds: +217

At first, I wanted to go with the under for Jones’ made 3-pointers because Michigan State’s perimeter defense is solid. But Jones is not one of Auburn’s primary scoring threats (he was fifth on the team in scoring during the regular season; he did have 20 vs. Michigan).

But since the Spartans will be more focused on Broome, Baker-Mazara and Pettiford, I can see him getting a few really good looks and hitting two from deep.

As for Broome’s rebound numbers, he averaged 10.8 per game during the season and has had 11, 12 and 16 in tournament play. Statistically, Michigan State is the better rebounding team, but I do not think one of the best players in the game will be denied.