Fantasy Football 2026: Avoid These Players Because of 5 Major Red Flags

Bad team, too much competition, similar projections, fantasy-unfriendly new coach, tough schedule …

Each can ruin your fantasy football season because you’ve misjudged these projection-killers in your player evaluations.

Here’s why each must be factored (negatively) into your draft rankings, and some popular players that must be avoided because of it …

BAD TEAM

For all we know, Ashton Jeanty might make the Hall of Fame someday. If so, his path will have started from the fantasy doghouse.

Not that Jeanty could do anything about his high draft projection and terrible team last season, but they conspired to deliver him and his fantasy owners a nightmare.

He wasn’t the only one. If you drafted anyone from the Raiders, Titans and Jets last season, you either overpaid or made a colossal mistake. Mostly the latter.

Do yourself a favor: Avoid all Raiders (again), Dolphins and Browns this year.

MUST AVOID: Jeanty, DeVon Achane.

TOO MUCH COMPETITION

The way I count it, 12 different teams that will have pretty good running games went to training camp uncertain who would be putting up the biggest of those numbers this season.

Committee backfields – they have become a popular trend in the NFL … and fantasy owners hate ‘em.

TreVeon Henderson and Kyren Williams would be first-round fantasy picks if Rhamonde Stevenson and Blake Corum weren’t around. The Bears, Steelers, Chargers, Jaguars, Vikings, Buccaneers and Commanders all have potential second- or third-round picks … if they’d prioritize quality over quantity.

You might think this is the year Kyle Monangui, Bhayshul Tuten or Jacory Croskey-Merritt explodes onto the scene – and you might be right. But if you’re wrong and you wind up with Chuba Hubbard as your starting running back, it’s going to be a long season.

MUST AVOID: Tuten, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Jones Sr., Jadarian Price.

SIMILAR PROJECTIONS

There are two schools of thought when it comes to runs in fantasy drafts: Start them or end them.

Actually, I’m from a higher level of fantasy education. My school says: Avoid them.

This year’s quarterback crop is a classic example.

It starts with Josh Allen, a bonafide third-round pick.

But who goes next? In the early ESPN drafts, five guys – Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow – have generally gone as a group in the fifth and sixth rounds.

Then the panicky drafters have snatched up Jaxson Dart, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence pretty much side-by-side in Rounds 9 and 10.

That’s 12 quarterbacks – one starter for each of your rivals in a 10-team league, with three teams having already taken a backup.

And you still don’t have one?

Not to worry. While your colleagues are throwing darts at backup running backs and wide receivers, you can feel real good about landing Brock Purdy or Jared Goff well after the smoke has cleared. Or maybe you’d prefer someone more established – like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert. Heck, you might even see big things from Kyler Murray or Tyler Shough.

The point is: You can win a fantasy championship with an 11th-round quarterback. Just ask those who thought they’d gotten stuck with Maye last year.

Do yourself a favor: Walk, don’t run, when it comes to your quarterback this year.

MUST AVOID: Anyone taken in the first 10 rounds … and Jordan Love.

FANTASY-UNFRIENDLY NEW COACH

We all saw last season the type of impact a new coach can have on fantasy. Ben Johnson and Liam Coen were godsends to our game.

Who’s next? Unfortunately, possibly nobody.

Only three new coaches this season have an offensive clue, and two of them – Todd Monken and Klint Kubiak – join long-term projects.

That leaves Mike McCarthy, so don’t sleep on the Steelers this season.

The others … ugh.

MUST AVOID: Lamar Jackson and any Brown, Raider, Titan and Dolphin not named Brock Bowers.

TOUGH SCHEDULE

Nobody does fantasy strength-of-schedule ratings like I do. Nobody.

Trust me when I say: Caleb Williams will face the toughest collection of pass defenses this season; Ashton Jeanty will collide with more high-quality run defenses than anyone; and only the Bears and Raiders will have a harder time getting balls to their wide receivers than the Broncos.

Remember last season when the NFC West got three teams into the postseason thanks to a cupcake rotation in the schedule? This season, the AFC North and NFC North draw the lucky straws.

Meanwhile, the AFC East and NFC South have it the roughest.

MUST AVOID: Have I mentioned this is a bad year to draft a Raider?