How Did The NFL Experts Do With Their Division Predictions?

PunditTracker|published: Sat 4th January, 13:09 2014

Let's look at how the 57 NFL Pundits we are tracking fared with their preseason predictions for the division winners. First, here were their collective predictions:

Originally published on Pundittracker

NFC(E)	NFC(N)	NFC(S)	NFC(W)
24: NYG	48: GB	46: ATL	29: SEA
16: WAS	06: CHI	09: NO	28: SF
16: DAL	02: MIN	02: TB	00: STL
01: PHI	01: DET	00: CAR	00: ARI

AFC(E)	AFC(N)	AFC(S)	AFC(W)
57: NE	39: CIN	49: HOU	56: DEN
00: BUF	15: BAL	08: IND	01: KC
00: MIA	03: PIT	00: TEN	00: OAK
00: NYJ	00: CLE	00: JAC	00: SD

The pundits collectively whiffed on the NFL South, with only one pundit ( Adam Schein) picking the Eagles in the NFC East and only eight picking the Colts in the AFC South.

Now here are the results on an individual basis, sorted by Yield (the average return had you bet $1 on each of the picks at Moneyline Odds).

Pundit	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West	Hit Rate	Yield
Overall	57/57	39/57	8/57	56/57	1/57	48/57	0/57	29/57	4/8	$0.97
Ben Goessling	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SF	5/8	$1.35
Bill Williamson	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	5/8	$1.35
Peter King	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	5/8	$1.35
Albert Breer	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	5/8	$1.35
Kimberly Jones	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	5/8	$1.35
Colin Cowherd	NE	PIT	IND	DEN	DAL	GB	NO	SEA	5/8	$1.26
Adam Schein	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	PHI	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$1.22
John Clayton	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
David Fleming	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
KC Joyner	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Adam Schefter	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Rich Cimini	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Terry Blount	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	NO	SEA	5/8	$1.19
John Keim	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	NO	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Phil Sheridan	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Nick Wagoner	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Don Banks	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Ben Eagle	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Doug Farrar	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	NO	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Tom Mantzouranis	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Jim Trotter	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	TB	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Elliot Harrison	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SEA	5/8	$1.19
Gil Brandt	NE	CIN	IND	DEN	DAL	DET	ATL	SF	4/8	$1.14
Austin Murphy	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	CHI	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.98
Bucky Brooks	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	CHI	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.98
Mike Silver	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	CHI	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.98
Bill Simmons	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	CHI	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.98
Mike Reiss	NE	BAL	IND	DEN	NYG	GB	NO	SF	4/8	$0.97
Jeffri Chadiha	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Rick Reilly	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Scott Brown	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	NO	SF	4/8	$0.90
Tania Ganguli	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Mike Rodak	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	NO	SF	4/8	$0.90
Mike Wells	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Dan Graziano	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Michael C. Wright	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Pat Yasinskas	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Jeff Darlington	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Judy Battista	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	4/8	$0.90
Ashley Fox	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Mike Sando	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Matt Williamson	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	NO	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Jamison Hensley	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
James Walker	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Rob Demovsky	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Chris Burke	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Daniel Jeremiah	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	DAL	GB	ATL	SEA	4/8	$0.82
Adam Teicher	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	CHI	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.69
David Newton	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	NYG	MIN	NO	SF	3/8	$0.69
Ian Rapoport	NE	CIN	HOU	DEN	DAL	CHI	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.69
Bill Barnwell	NE	PIT	HOU	KC	NYG	GB	TB	SEA	3/8	$0.66
Kevin Seifert	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.52
Seth Wickersham	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.52
Michael DiRocco	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	WAS	GB	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.52
Paul Kuharsky	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.52
Jeff Legwold	NE	BAL	HOU	DEN	NYG	GB	ATL	SF	3/8	$0.52
Todd Archer	NE	PIT	HOU	DEN	WAS	MIN	ATL	SF	2/8	$0.31

No pundit got more than 5 of the 8 divisions correct. Those with the best yields generally picked the Colts, as Vegas pegged their odds to win the AFC South at just 28% (Texans were the overwhelming favorite). The Eagles were given an 18% probability by Vegas, which makes it surprising that only Schein made that pick, while the Panthers were 15%.

To see what these pundits collectively picked for the conference winners and player awards, see our preseason recap post.

There is still time to make your own picks for this week's Wild Card games and see if you can move up our User Leaderboard. Head over to our Sports Section to do so.

PunditTracker's mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry by cataloging and scoring the predictions of pundits.

Original images via Getty