How the Baltimore Orioles Remain in AL Wild Card Hunt Despite Deadline Fire Sale

The Baltimore Orioles took the posture of clear sellers at the trade deadline, dealing away catcher Adley Rutschman, pitchers Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, and outfielder Taylor Ward.

And yet as September began, the O’s found themselves at exactly .500. Even after Tuesday night’s loss in Colorado, the Birds are only 1 1/2 games off the pace for the final AL Wild Card spot.

Here’s how they’ve been able to do it.

They Get Better Late

The Orioles may not be above average overall, but they’ve been pretty good in the late innings.

Baltimore has won three times this season when trailing after eight innings, eight times when trailing after seven, and 11 times when trailing after six innings. Conversely, they’ve lost only once when leading after eight, and only six times when leading after seven or after six.

The bullpen has been on a good run of late, pitching to an MLB-best 2.17 ERA between Aug. 12-31.

And while Craig Albernaz has had an at-times tumultuous first season as manager, he has been particularly successful with his pinch-hitting decisions. The Orioles have six pinch-hit home runs this year, four of those coming from Tyler O’Neill.

The Losses Were Overstated

The reality is that the players Baltimore dealt were bigger names than they were contributors.

Rutschman was a three-time All-Star in Baltimore, but most of his +1.8 WAR this season came before injuries resurfaced. From May 1 through the end of his time in Baltimore, he slashed only .218/.309/.362, and he has only gone further south since joining the Boston Red Sox.

Taylor Ward hit for a reasonable average but had only seven round-trippers this season, well off the pace of any of his previous four campaigns.

Dean Kremer’s best trait was durability. But he consistently underwhelmed as a starter, pitching to a 6.50 ERA before he moved on to Minnesota.

Whether any of these players improve in their new homes is beside the point. They weren’t really giving performances far above replacement level while they were in Charm City, so their departures were easier to absorb than some predicted.

Getting Their Money’s Worth

Baltimore historically hasn’t made many big splashes in the free-agent market, but their decision to hand Pete Alonso a five-year, $155-million deal this offseason has so far worked out.

Alonso started slow, but quickly recovered to post very familiar numbers. He’s currently slashing .269/.360/.499 with 32 home runs, picking up right where he left off in four consecutive All-Star seasons for the New York Mets.

The 31-year-old has also put in considerable work to improve his fielding at first base. He has only three errors while posting what would be a career-best .997 fielding percentage. If he can keep it up, it would be the first time in his career that his fielding percentage comes in above the league average.