Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Garry: Why Each Fighter Can Win at UFC 330

Why will Islam Makhachev beat Ian Garry?

• Let’s start with the obvious — offensive wrestling. In the 2020s, Islam has taken down every single one of his opponents at least once. The only exception is the rematch with Volkanovski, where Makhachev dropped the Australian with a head kick in the 1st round and never needed to wrestle. Without a doubt, Islam is currently the best wrestler and grappler in the entire UFC. Garry has been taken down 6 times. Yes, mostly early in his career, but Shavkat Rakhmonov is a recent example. The Kazakh fighter had 11 minutes of control if we combine ground and clinch time.

• Huge title-fight experience. This upcoming fight will be the 7th title fight of Islam’s career, while it will be Garry’s first. Say what you want, but the TITLE factor always puts additional pressure on a fighter. Makhachev is used to operating in that environment; Garry isn’t. That could matter in a critical moment.

• Makhachev has found solutions in the toughest situations. Islam’s career hasn’t been as smooth as Khabib’s. He’s had extremely difficult fights against Volkanovski and Poirier, where he had to dig deep mentally and pull out the wins. But that’s not a weakness — it’s a PLUS for Islam. We know for a fact that Makhachev won’t break if his initial game plan doesn’t work. Can we say the same about Garry? Yes, he had a strong 5th round against Rakhmonov, but he couldn’t turn around a fight he was losing. He didn’t step on the gas when he was just a little short of doing so.

• Makhachev’s adaptation to 170 lbs. His first fight at welterweight was a little underwhelming. Yes, Islam dominated and went 5-0 on the scorecards, but at times he didn’t take the risks necessary to hunt for a finish. That’s completely normal for a debut in a new weight class. He didn’t want to burn through his gas tank when he didn’t need to. Remember Pereira’s debut at 205? Look how much he picked up the pace afterward! The same could happen with Islam. If there are no injuries, he should be able to fight more sharply and aggressively than he did last time.

Why will Ian Garry beat Islam Makhachev?

• Garry’s biggest danger is that he doesn’t chase finishes or damage. Ian simply doesn’t care about the fans’ or the UFC’s reaction. He enters the cage to score points. When an opponent tries to land harder shots, hunt for a submission, or build an attack, Ian is simply collecting points on the judges’ scorecards. Rakhmonov seemed to dominate at times, yet ended up winning just 3-2. Prates made a huge push in the 5th round, but by then he was already down 1-3, 1-3, 0-4 on the cards.

• Damaging oblique kicks. I’ve written about this many times, but I’ll repeat it — Garry has the BEST oblique kicks to the knee among current UFC fighters. Those are the exact kicks he used to damage Rakhmonov’s knee. If Islam loses the use of one leg, it becomes much harder for him to strike, wrestle, and move away from a long-limbed Garry.

• Long-range strikes and eye pokes. This is where Garry is most competitive. He’s taller than Islam and has a longer reach. Ian has boxing experience from Ireland, combined with the style of a typical kickboxing outfighter. Makhachev has made huge improvements in his boxing at mid-range, but it will be difficult for him to out-gun Garry from the outside. There’s also a high risk of running into extended fingers, which can disrupt his rhythm, impair his vision, and even cause an injury.

The paradox is that Garry doesn’t have one obvious elite strength that you can simply prepare for. And that’s the most dangerous part when building a game plan.

Ian is difficult to pressure, he has excellent cardio over the full distance, and he’s very good at defending on the ground.

We’re going to see a TOUGH fight for both men.