Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction: Why Jacksonville Can Cover the Spread

The Baltimore Ravens will host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

The Ravens currently sit last in the AFC North with a 4-4 record. The Jaguars are 5-2, leading the AFC South.

There are a few aspects of this game working in Baltimore’s favor. The biggest is the location of the game.

The Jaguars have benefited from playing the majority of their games at home in 2026. They’re averaging only 18 points per game in contests outside of Jacksonville. They’ve also held their opponents to only 18 points per game in those contests.

Jacksonville boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL, and even though they’ve been worse on the road, they’re still playing at an elite level. Overall, they rank second in the league, holding their opponents to only 0.266 points per play.

Baltimore quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley aren’t playing this week, leaving rookie Joe Fagnano to draw the start. He played in relief duty against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8, throwing for 91 yards and one interception on 21 pass attempts.

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Although Fagnano didn’t find success last week, he was the emergency quarterback. He’ll get an entire week's worth of practice as the starter, and he’s coming off a strong preseason.

Ultimately, I expect Jacksonville to load the box, shut down Derrick Henry, and make Fagnano beat them. It’s unlikely Baltimore finds a ton of offensive success, which means this comes down to how much Jacksonville can score.

The Jaguars haven’t traveled well in terms of offense, but they’re averaging the fourth-most points per play (0.473) in the NFL this season. I’d suspect their struggles are due to limited games rather than their offense being significantly worse on the road.

The Ravens have also struggled to find defensive success in 2026. They’re giving up 0.408 points per play, ranking 24th in the NFL. Overall, the Ravens are allowing 25.4 points per game this season.

Baltimore’s offensive struggles could turn into opportunities for Jacksonville’s offense. Turnovers or short fields will give the Jaguars an edge, and I don’t expect Fagnano to become a strong option after one week of practice.

Trevor Lawrence and company should find the end zone enough here to beat even this large of a spread.

Where to Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 spread | -120

2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 10-14