Lack of NCAA Tournament upsets leaves sportsbooks sweating

Field Level Media|published: Mon 24th March, 18:22 2025

NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament Second Round-Baylor at Duke

Mar 23, 2025; Raleigh, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts after scoring a 3 pointer during the first half against the Baylor Bears in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

With the power conferences dominating the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, sportsbooks stand to take a hit if the trend of most favorites winning continues.

The SEC set a record with seven teams reaching the Sweet 16, while the Big Ten and Big 12 each have four and Duke representing the lone ACC team still alive. The Blue Devils lead the four No. 1 seeds who each made it through the first two rounds.

Arkansas, the 10th seed in the West, qualifies as this year's "Cinderella" story as the only seed higher than No. 6 to win its first two games in the 2025 tournament.

Oddsmakers are expecting the trend of elite teams marching on to continue.

Duke is now the +210 favorite to win the title at DraftKings, where it is followed by fellow No. 1 seeds Florida at+350 and Houston and Auburn each at +500. No other team has shorter title odds than Tennessee at +1700.

The Blue Devils lead all teams with 20 percent of all bets and 21 percent of all money wagered on the champion. Florida has drawn 13 percent of the money, Auburn 6 percent and Houston 6 percent. St. John's, which lost to Arkansas, is tied for fifth at just 5 percent.

The story is similar at BetMGM, where the same top four teams are Duke (+225), Florida (+350), Houston (+500) and Auburn (+525).

The Blue Devils are the book's biggest liability, with 13.2 percent of all tickets and 38.3 percent of all money bet on the champion backing Duke since it opened at +1100. BetMGM took a $500,000 wager on Duke at +350 to win the title, a $100,000 wager on Florida at +900 and a $50,000 wager on Houston at +600.

But the book's second biggest liability is Michigan State, the No. 2 seed in the South that will face No. 6 Ole Miss in the Sweet 16. The Spartans have drawn 7.7 percent of all bets and are currently +2000 to win it all.

Florida was the only No. 1 seed to feel any real pressure through the first two rounds, when the Gators beat the two-time defending champion UConn Huskies by two points in the Round of 32.

"Without many upsets, bettors found success on moneyline parlays with favorites to start the NCAA Tournament," BetMGM Senior Trader Michael Ranftle said. "UConn covering was the best result of the early rounds for the sportsbook.

"BetMGM is cheering for at least one upset in each round moving forward to break up parlays."

--Field Level Media