Lincoln Riley’s USC Tenure Faces a Defining Moment Against Ohio State

In case the barrage of advertisements during any college football broadcast weren’t reminder enough, we are in the stretch run of political campaign season. 
That may explain why Lincoln Riley’s comments on Tuesday, ahead of Southern California’s pivotal Big Ten Conference matchup with No. 2-ranked Ohio State, rang with the twinge of desperation often reserved for a candidate well behind in the polls.

“This is the right place for me. I'm the right person to be here,” Riley told reporters, three days removed from a loss at Wisconsin.

Every era of USC football since Pete Carroll’s departure for the NFL in 2009 has had a rock-bottom moment; a loss that reveals itself to be the point-of-no-return when evaluated with hindsight.

For Lane Kiffin, it was a rudderless Sun Bowl showing against Georgia Tech. For Steve Sarkisian, it was a Thursday night home loss to Washington that immediately preceded his firing in 2015. For Clay Helton, losing the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game in an empty Coliseum to an Oregon team that was only there because of failed COVID tests at Washington made his firing two games into the next season inevitable.

Riley has time to turn things around for his own tenure at USC, and beating the nation’s No. 2-ranked team could not be a more emphatic bounce-back. Until, or unless, that happens, the 24-7 drubbing Wisconsin put on the Trojans is the nadir of the Riley era.

Upping the stakes with Ohio State’s visit, the Buckeyes will be without quarterback Julian Sayin. A product of Carlsbad High School, a short trek south of the Coliseum in San Diego County, the shoulder injury sustained Oct. 17 at Indiana spoiled Sayin’s would-be California homecoming.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day has yet to name a starter between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, but either will be making what is ostensibly their collegiate debut. Fahey and St. Clair have attempted 22 passes between them.

Given the inexperience, if Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith produces numbers in the same area code as his otherworldly production to date, we might as well award the Heisman Trophy on Nov. 1.

On the flipside, Ohio State coming into the Coliseum for the first time since a 35-3 Trojans rout in 2008 and winning with a reserve quarterback starts the clock on USC’s long-term plans much sooner than anticipated.

USA Today published commentary suggesting as much, quoting a source “with direct insight into the program” as saying, “Let him lose to Ohio State, without a quarterback, and things are really going to get uncomfortable.”

“Uncomfortable” is an understatement. The Coliseum has a way of becoming a losing candidate’s election-night watch party once things begin to unravel.

Adding to the prospective awkwardness is the matter of Riley’s buyout. Estimates range from between $57-70 million — a hefty sum even in this age of football inflation.

Maybe Riley and the Trojans have an October surprise in them. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is only two games removed from having thrown for 301 yards against a Penn State defense ranked third nationally against the pass.

And though neither is Jeremiah Smith, the Trojans freshmen wide-receiving tandem of Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Trent Mosley is as talented a one-two combination as the Ohio State secondary will face this season.

Until the results match the rhetoric, however, there’s only empty campaign promises for USC.