Although Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace was shut down through much of Saturday's game against LSU, he had two chances late in the game to lead his team to victory. However, LSU's defense stopped both of Ole Miss' late drives and accounted for two of the most impactful plays of the week, according to data from fantasy sports app Pivit.
Pivit tracked in-game Win Probability for all college football games involving ranked teams this weekend. Their Win Probability is similar to Brian Burke's and accounts for time remaining, down, distance, and score. The main difference is Pivit places more emphasis on team strength, adjusting for the wild variation among college football teams.
With just under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, Ole Miss faced fourth and one at the LSU 47 yard line. Ole Miss tried a QB sneak, but LSU stuffed Wallace. The play gave LSU the ball, and lowered Ole Miss' Win Probability 18 percentage points from 20 percent to 2 percent.
Following the turnover on downs, LSU couldn't pick up the first down it needed to run out the clock. Ole Miss got the ball back and marched all the way down to the LSU 30, putting themselves in field-goal range to tie the game and send it to overtime. Ole Miss sent out its kick team, but then crazy ol' Les Miles called a timeout. Looking to surprise the Mad Hatter, Ole Miss sent out their offense following the timeout, hoping to take a chance at the end zone to win the game in regulation. Wallace threw deep into double coverage and was intercepted. The play essentially ended the game and lowered Ole Miss' Win Probability 29 percentage points from 29 percent to 0 percent (which just means Ole Miss had lost the game by the play's conclusion).
Utah quarterback Travis Wilson had the most positive play of the week. His 18-yard run with under a minute remaining led to Utah's game-winning touchdown two plays later. The play raised Utah's Win Probability 44 percentage points from 42 percent to 86 percent.
Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.
|Travis Wilson rush for 18 yards||UTAH||0.44||4||0:55||2||3||19|
|Brett Hundley rush for 8 yard touchdown||UCLA||0.33||OT 2||n/a||1||8||8|
|J.T. Barrett rush for 5 yard touchdown||OSU||0.30||OT 1||n/a||1||5||5|
|Bill Belton rush for 1 yard touchdown||PSU||0.26||OT 1||n/a||3||1||1|
|Cody Kessler pass to Darreus Rogers for 4 yard touchdown||USC||0.25||4||12:00||3||4||4|
|Bo Wallace pass intercepted by LSU-Ronald Martin, no return||MISS||-0.29||4||0:09||3||7||30|
|Bo Wallace rush for no gain||MISS||-0.18||4||1:44||4||1||47|
|Darreus Rogers fumble, recovered by UT-Davion Orphey and returned for 53 yard touchdown||USC||-0.18||1||14:27||1||10||52|
|Paul Perkins rush for a loss of 3 yards||UCLA||-0.15||OT 1||n/a||3||3||7|
|J.T. Barrett rush for 4 yards||OSU||-0.14||4||3:58||3||8||49|