Makhachev vs. Machado Garry: The Numbers Behind UFC 330's Main Event

Islam Makhachev defends his UFC welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry this Saturday, August 15 at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, and the numbers behind this main event tell a story of historic dominance colliding with a hungry, undersized-on-paper champion chasing history of his own.

The Streak That Chases History

Makhachev enters at 28-1-0 riding a 16-fight winning streak, tied with Anderson Silva for the longest in UFC history. He's 17-1 inside the Octagon and has gone 6-0 in title fights. Since 2015, no lightweight has beaten him, and his move up to welterweight to dethrone Jack Della Maddalena via unanimous decision at UFC 322 made him the UFC's 11th double champion. Garry, by contrast, is 17-1-0 overall and 10-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming via decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a welterweight title eliminator. He'd become the first Irishman to fight for UFC gold since Conor McGregor.

Where the Eye-Popping Numbers Live

This is where the stat sheet gets loud. Makhachev's finishing rate sits at 64%, built on 13 submissions and 5 knockouts, and his significant striking accuracy of 58% ranks among the best in UFC history at his old weight class. His takedown accuracy is a staggering 56%, meaning wrestlers and strikers alike have almost no answer for keeping him off top position. Garry's profile flips the script: he's a volume striker averaging 4.78 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Makhachev's 2.45, nearly double the output.

But volume cuts both ways. Garry absorbs 2.86 strikes per minute at just 52% striking defense, while Makhachev leaks only 1.45 per minute behind 61% defense. Picture it: Garry throwing and landing at a faster clip early, only for Makhachev's suffocating grappling control to slow the pace and drain that volume advantage round by round. That contrast is amplified by takedown defense; Garry sits at just 80% compared, but that has been against no opposition that compares to Makhachev.

Makhachev averages 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes with a finishing arsenal spanning D'Arce chokes, arm triangles, kimuras, and RNCs, while Garry has just a single career submission win in 18 professional fights. Makhachev's average fight time sits around 11
minutes, reflecting his tendency to grind out shorter nights, while Garry's UFC average runs closer to 11:40 across 11 Octagon appearances, suggesting he can hang deep into fights when needed.

The Full Card Snapshot

The five-fight main card also features a title fight in the co-main, with strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) defending against Gillian Robertson (17-8-0), plus Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes, Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus, and Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics rounding out the main slate. Across 12 total bouts, the card leans heavily on veteran
depth, with combined fighter experience spanning several UFC eras.

For Garry to pull off the upset, the numbers suggest he needs his striking volume and cage control to offset Makhachev's takedown accuracy (56%) and near-impenetrable defensive wrestling, a tall statistical order against arguably the most dominant streak in promotion history.