Michigan vs Tennessee Prediction: Why Wolverines Are the Elite 8 Best Bet

The Michigan Wolverines have been one of the most dominant teams in the NCAA Tournament. They’re winning their games by an average of 19 points per game. They’ve also won each game by 13+ points.

The Tennessee Volunteers have been one of the bigger surprises in the Elite 8. They dominated Miami (OH) before a closer matchup against Virginia. Finally, they easily advanced past Iowa State, who was without their best player in Joushua Jefferson.

The Volunteers are a team that generally wins with size and physicality. They have several outstanding bigs, who can eat minutes and find success at the rim. They also lead the NCAA with a ridiculous 45% offensive rebounding rate, giving them a plethora of extra offensive opportunities.

The issue in this matchup is that they won’t have that edge over Michigan. The Wolverines also have elite size, although their bigs aren’t quite as physical as Tennessee tends to play. Still, they are elite rebounders, and the Volunteers aren’t going to see extra opportunities in this type of matchup.

This is a matchup where I prefer Michigan nearly everywhere. They feature the better offense, regardless of how both teams are looking to score. If Tennessee can’t get extra possessions, they aren’t going to have a chance in this game.

The other key is that the Wolverines don’t foul their opponents often, while the Volunteers aren’t quite as sound. That physical style of play often results in their bigs getting into foul trouble, which is why their depth is important. Still, this is a spot where Michigan can get Tennessee into foul trouble, giving them another edge.

Generally, opponents have to shoot against Tennessee to find success. Michigan has a couple of solid shooters, but it’s the success they’ve had in the tournament that sticks out. Through three NCAA Tournament games, Elliot Cadeau and Yaxel Lendeborg have combined to shoot 15-31 (48.4%) from deep.

If Cadeau and Lendeborg continue to shoot at an elite level, this Michigan team is going to be impossible to beat.

Ultimately, both of these teams have elite defenses, but I slightly prefer Michigan in that area. More importantly, I trust this Wolverines offense drastically more than. I also trust Dusty May as one of the best coaches in the NCAA, and he should continue to make in-game adjustments that give Michigan continued edges over their competition.

Where to Bet: Michigan -7.5 spread | -105 at BetMGM

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 7-10