Midweek College Football Picks: Army, Florida State, TCU Odds & Analysis

Everyone knows the Saturday slate of games will be one of the best this year, but we’ve got a few fun games during the week to hold us over until that point. Getting some solid conference games before we even get into the Tuesday night MACtion portion of the year. Here are the picks:

Army at East Carolina (-5.5), Total: 53.5

There are very few teams as confusing as Army this year. They started the year by losing to FCS Tarleton State, an excellent FCS program ranked third in the nation. Then they followed that up by beating Kansas State, who might be the worst Power 4 FBS program in the country. Then last week, they took an undefeated North Texas team down to the wire in a close loss.

I think Army is good?

ECU’s Katin House looked terrible last week against BYU at home. Was BYU a little underrated, or is ECU a middle-of-the-road team in the American? I think it’s more of the latter, so I don’t see why Army isn’t able to run all over ECU in this one. I like the Black Knights to cover and maybe notch their first conference win of the season.

Pick: Army +5.5

Florida State (-6.5) at Virginia, Total: 60.5

The Seminoles opened this game as nearly 10-point favorites, and since then, experts have deemed this game the “trap game” of the week, and the line has plummeted down to a one-score game.

I was wrong on Florida State in the preseason, but I won’t make the same mistake twice. They are so much better than an average Virginia team. The Cavaliers can score the ball, and Chandler Morris is the real deal at QB, but Florida State is so much better this year.

Their defense is going to put Morris under more pressure than he’s been in all season, and if they can turn him over 1-2 times, it’ll be too much for them to handle.

This isn’t a trap game; Florida State rolls and gets its top-10 matchup next week against Miami.

Pick: Florida State -6.5
Lean: Over 60.5

TCU at Arizona State (-3.5), Total: 54.5

Last week, Arizona State was outplayed by Baylor; however, head coach Kenny Dillingham has built such a gritty team, and they eked out a massive conference win on the road.

TCU is a lot better than Baylor, though.

Led by Josh Hoover, who is quickly flying up Heisman odds lists, the Horned Frogs aren’t just a good offensive team like they were last year; the defense has taken significant steps forward.

Sonny Dykes is not someone who will get outcoached by Dillingham, and I think that the talent gap between these two teams is something that doesn’t add up in this game. I know Arizona State is at home, but I just don’t understand how they can be a favorite in this one. I like TCU outright as Hoover can outduel Sam Leavitt, and TCU’s defense is far better.

Pick: TCU +3.5
Lean: Under 54.5

2025 Record

Picks: 18-14
Leans: 6-13