MLB Best Bets September 8: Yankees vs. Tigers, Red Sox vs. A’s Betting Picks

I think the wonderful thing about baseball is that there’s been about a billion games in MLB history, yet you can still see something that’s almost certainly never happened. Anyways, let’s try to nail a couple winners.

Season Record: 9-5-2, +4.09 Units

Tigers at Yankees

Yankees ML (-155 Caesars)

These teams are heading in opposite directions lately. The Yankees have won 11 of their last 14, scoring 90 runs and hitting 32 homers over that stretch. Meanwhile the Tigers are coasting to a division title and sit in a mini slump where they’ve dropped 8 of their last 12 games. They’ve scored 54 runs and popped just 10 homers and have a 92 wRC+ in this run.

It's the same story in the pitching matchup. Tiger Casey Mize has had a much better overall season than Yankee starter Will Warren. But in his last 8 starts, Mize has a 5.59 ERA and 1.49 WHIP vs. a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts before that.

Now it's possible he was just “lucky” earlier on as his K% was mediocre both early (20.9%) and later (20.2%) and his SIERA was 4.12 when he was good and 4.17 when he was not so good. The truth is his SIERA is probably right and he’s a low 4’s ERA level pitcher that is on a bad run of batted ball luck. But when you let a hot Yankees team put balls in play, bad things happen.

Warren meanwhile has seen his results go the opposite direction. He has a 2.79 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in his last 8 starts, vs. 4.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in first 21 outings. But his SIERA went the other way, from 3.95 to 4.36.

The pitching matchup is likely a wash, very recent top line results to the contrary. But Warren gets to face a much weaker lineup. Give me the Yankees and I’ll cross my fingers they don’t have one of their bullpen or defensive meltdown games.

Red Sox at A’s

Over 10.5 (-105 ESPN BET)

A’s starter Jeffrey Springs has pitched decently well overall, but he has a 4.73 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in the 72.1 IP at home, vs. 3.61 and 1.11 away.

Red Sox pitcher Dustin May pitches poorly everywhere, with a 4.96 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. And he faces an A’s lineup that has slashed .265/.326/.468 with a 115 wRC+ since the All-Star break, 5th best in MLB.

Throw in that we have a 117 Runs Factor on the season at Sutter Health Park as per Statcast and we could see some fireworks. Give me the over.