MLB Best Bets Today: Strikeout Props and Total Plays to Target

OK it's not quite a full card tonight as the Padres and Diamondbacks travel to the baseball equivalent of the moon ... the 7,000 ft elevation of Mexico City.

But that’s still 14 games to pore through, let’s go with a couple MLB picks for today

Season Record 11-10-1, -0.08 Units

Rockies at Mets

Freddy Peralta Over K’s (-143 DraftKings)

The Mets prized offseason acquisition has been good but not great so far, going 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 26.2 IP over five starts. He’s rocking a 25% K% with 28 K’s. His 30.2% Whiff% is slightly off from his career 31.4% rate, but his K% has dipped more precipitously from 29.7%.

And his Called Strike% is actually higher this year at 16.1%, vs. 15.5% overall. So I suspect he’s due to see his K’s pick up a bit.

He gets a prime opponent for that in the Rockies, particularly thanks to getting them away from Coors. Colorado has a league high 27.1% K% on the road. Willi Castro (42.9% Road K%), Hunter Goodman (41.2%), Mickey Moniak (34.8%) and Edouard Jullien (33.3%) all figure to start tonight, giving Peralta plenty of swing and miss potential.

The biggest impediment is likely Peralta’s ability (or lack thereof) to get deep into games as he’s only made it through 6 innings once this year. The Mets used a lot of bullpen innings last night, so I will play that he gets there or close and gets some whiffs along the way.

Rangers at A’s

Under 8.5 (-115 FanDuel)

Whether it’s the humidor or whatever, Globe Life Park in Arlington has turned into the just about the best pitchers park in MLB. It has an 85 runs factor, tied with T-Mobile in Seattle for lowest in the league. Of course the betting number reflects that, but does it fully capture that A’s starter Luis Severino just so happens to pitch much better when he’s leaves his bandbox in Sacramento?

The A’s righty has a downright lousy 6.20 ERA and 1.70 WHIP after 5 starts this year. The big culprit is a horrendous 18% BB% that’s a bit out of line with his fairly average 7.5% career mark. He hasn’t solved that walk problem away from home this year, in fact he’s worse, But his ERA is a little better away this year (5.40 vs. 7.15) and was a lot better last year (3.02 vs. 6.01). I don’t expect him to actually be good, just non-horendous.

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi had a couple clunkers to start the season, but in his last 3 starts he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 18 innings with 17 K’s and 5 BB’s. Both teams has meh offenses, with Texas at 100 wRC+ and the A’s at 95. The weak link here is clearly Severino, but I’ll side with enough run suppression.