MLB Best Bets Today: Thursday August 21st Top Baseball Betting Picks

Lucas Giolito takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Thursday for his first start against New York this season, hoping the Yankees’ bats cooled after a two-game power surge.

The Bronx Bombers return home following a longball parade against the Rays. They enter Thursday four games back in the division but holding a 1 1/2-game edge over Boston for the American League’s first wild-card spot.

The four-game set should shape the AL East pennant chase. Here are three betting plays to consider for Thursday’s MLB slate.

Mets at Nationals, 4:05 p.m. ET

Pick: Over 8.0 total runs (-110, FanDuel)

Sean Manaea and the Mets look to clinch a series win in Washington. Manaea has struggled this month with a 7.98 ERA, surrendering 13 runs and four homers in just 14 2/3 innings.

Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore earned a no-decision against New York earlier this season and owns a 4.29 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. Both starters bring volatility, making the over appealing in this spot.

Red Sox at Yankees, 7:15 p.m. ET

Pick: Lucas Giolito over 15.5 outs recorded (-112, FanDuel)

Giolito has rediscovered his rhythm in Boston, posting an 8-2 record, though his road form has been shakier. In four of his past five away starts, he’s issued 11 walks and allowed six homers.

Still, he’s been efficient in August, going at least five innings in each of his three starts this month. His matchups vs. New York are encouraging: Aaron Judge (0 for 4), Paul Goldschmidt (1 for 9) and Giancarlo Stanton (3 HRs but four Ks in seven ABs) have struggled.

The play: Giolito to record at least 16 outs.

Cardinals at Rays, 7:15 p.m. ET

Pick: Sonny Gray 5+ strikeouts & Cardinals win (+180, FanDuel)

Sonny Gray enters start No. 25 with strikeout consistency, fanning at least five in five straight outings and in nearly every start since early May. He’s also hit seven-plus Ks in three consecutive starts.

Gray has a WHIP of 1.19 and ERA of 4.30, and while hitters make contact, he’s fared well against Tampa Bay — holding Rays hitters to a .211 average across prior matchups.

If Gray racks up strikeouts and limits the damage, the Cardinals are a live underdog at Tropicana Field.