MLB Picks Today: Astros vs Orioles and Dodgers vs Marlins Best Bets

How about a little East Coast-West Coast combo for our MLB picks today?

Season Record 14-12-1, -0.42 Units

Astros at Orioles

Astros F5 (+102 BetRivers)

It’s been quite the mess for Houston so far in 2025.

Expected to compete for the AL West as always, they have instead fallen on hard times amid a raft of pitcher injuries. But this is an organization with an excellent record of developing arms, and they may have found one in today’s starter, Peter Lambert. You might recognize the name as he pitched parts of four seasons in Colorado from 2019 to 2024, never logging more than 89.1 IP in the majors and never finishing a season with an ERA under 5.36.

Well, he took his talents (or at that point, lack thereof) to Japan last year and well, was just okay there too with a 4.26 ERA and 20.1% K%. The Astros brought him back and appeared to have unlocked something in the minors as he had a 1.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in three minor league starts, and now a 3.27 ERA in 11 IP with a whopping 33.3% K% and 17.7% SwSwr% over two starts in MLB. His fastball has gone up about 2 MPH over where he typically sat in his Rockies days, and he’s now added a cutter to his arsenal. Are his improvements for real? Well, the results look promising very early on.

His Stuff+ is 94 if you’re into that sort of thing, which indicates he’s a shade below average.

He does appear to have the upper hand tonight as he faces off against the Orioles Chris Bassitt. The well-traveled vet has gotten off to a brutal start in Baltimore, with a super ugly 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. His -2.70% K-BB% is the worst in MLB among starters who have logged at least 10 IP.

The best I can say is he keeps the ball on the ground and his EV allowed is low so there’s always a chance all the contact he induces will go to his fielders. The Astros have one of the best offenses in the league though and they have a 120 wRC+ on the road this year and an identical 120 wRC+ vs. righties. The Orioles for their part have a 119 wRC+ at home, so it's a pretty even battle at the plate. Give me the Astros as I’d rather take the unknown SP who looks great right now vs. the aging vet who looks absolutely cooked right now.

Marlins at Dodgers

Sandy Alcantara Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-107 DraftKings)

The Marlins ace looked back to his Cy Young form through his first three starts as he logged 24.1 IP and the only two runs he allowed were in the 9th inning of the third start.

He was just two outs away from a second straight complete game shutout, which makes him a regular Old Hoss Radbourne in today’s game. The last three outings have not gone so great, 17 IP, 6.35 ERA and 1.88 WHIP and he’s at the Dodgers tonight. But innings are what Sandy does. He induces a lot of grounders (48%) and has low whiff and walk and barrel rates.

So in games where he’s not getting BABIP-ed around he’s extremely efficient. Let’s back on another Sandy Special today.