MLB Picks Today: Two Pitchers Set Up To Fall Short On Outs Props

It’s getting hot out there! We could see some MLB offenses pick up and some shaky pitchers start to wilt. That’s the angle I’m going with for today’s MLB Picks.

Season Record 32-27-1, +1.86 Units

Cardinals at Reds

Kyle Leahy under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110 BetMGM)

Leahy is a converted reliever who has given the Cardinals a basically serviceable season as their 5th starter. By that I mean he has a 4.25 ERA and hasn’t missed a turn in the rotation and the team is surprisingly competitive in what looked like a rebuilding year. His 4.25 ERA is perfectly cromulent, but it’s a bit of smoke and mirrors as he has a 1.59 WHIP and just a 9.6% K-BB%. Leahy gives up a lot of balls in play and he’s pretty weak at controlling contact as his EV against is 91 (3rd percentile) with a 49.7% HardHit% (4th percentile) and 11.3% Barrel% (11th percentile).

It’s not a great recipe for success as he heads to Cincy and Great America Ballpark, which has a home run factor of 124 over the last three seasons, the 2nd highest in MLB. The Reds don’t have the greatest offense in the league, especially with Elly on the shelf. But JJ Bleday and Spencer Steer are on fire lately and Eugenio Suarez is back and I think Leahy has a rough night. Most importantly for this prop, Leahy does not get deep into games under even better circumstances. He averages exactly 5 IP per start and has only actually exceeded 15 outs on 3 of his 11 outings.

Brewers at Rockies

Brandon Sproat Under 14.5 Outs Recorded( +113 DraftKings)

The Brewers are wizards and managing and developing pitchers, but they didn’t exactly do the struggling Sproat a solid here as they pushed back his start. Instead of getting the Giants at home he gets to go in the funhouse that is Coors Field.

Milwaukee will want him to get some length here as they needed 6.2 IP from their pen yesterday, I just don’t think Sproat gives them that. He has a miserable 6.24 ERA and the only thing he has done fairly well this year is whiff some batters. But that’s tough at altitude as pitches don’t break like they do at sea level. In fact at 90 park factor its the toughest stadium to get K’s in over the last three seasons. It’s also the easiest to give up runs at 125 park factor. The 14.5 outs total is low, but it's well earned. Sproat has only gotten through 5 IP in one of his last 6 outings, and 3 of 11 overall. 

I just don’t see him having a great chance to get there tonight either.