NBA Finals now best of 3, but nearly a 'win or go home' Saturday

Saturday night is a must-win for the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks – literally.

Since 2000, this is the eighth time the NBA Finals hasve been knotted at 2-2. And in the past seven matchups, the winner of Game 5 has won the series five times. The series now shifts to a best out of three scenario, as the Suns will host Game 5, and then Game 7 (if needed), while the Bucks are guaranteed one more home game this season.

“This is the Finals,” Suns forward Cameron Johnson said after Game 4. “It’s the Finals — you’re not going to get away with anything easy. You’re not going to coast to any victory. I’m sure they’re going to say the same thing. It’s three more, you know. Three more. You got to get two of those.

“But there is no such thing as coasting here. It’s high stakes, very high stakes. They know what’s on the line. We know what’s on the line. We came here up 2-0. You know what they were talking about in their locker room. Now you know what we’re going to be talking about in our locker room.”

Here’s a look at how things have played out over the last 21 years when the Finals have been tied at 2-2.

After almost pulling off a Game 1 win on the road, the Cavs fell to the Warriors in overtime in the first game of the series after Kyrie Irving went down late. Miraculously, LeBron James was able to give Cleveland a 2-1 series lead before Golden State tied things up. The Warriors would go on to win Games 4, 5, and 6 by 21, 13, and 8 points after the first three games of the series were determined by a total of 15 points.

When the Spurs beat the Heat in Game 5 – at home – by double digits, it looked as if the Spurs were going to be celebrating on South Beach. That feeling heightened during the finals seconds of Game 6. But then Chris Bosh to Ray Allen happened, and one of the greatest moments in NBA history completely turned that series around, as the Heat won Games 6 and 7 for their second straight title.

After making it to the Finals in their first season together, the Big Three of LeBron James, D. Wade, and Chris Bosh couldn’t get more than a one-game lead against Dirk and the Mavericks. Deadlocked at 2-2, the Mavs were able to win Games 5 and 6 with some breathing room after the previous three matchups were all one-possession games.

In a rematch of the 2008 Finals in which the Lakers lost by 39 in the Game 6 clincher in Boston, the Lakers made sure they had home court advantage this time. And despite the Celtics winning Game 5, the Lakers bounced back in Game 6, and were able to pull off a Game 7 win due to a late 3-pointer from Ron Artest despite Kobe Bryant having one of the worst shooting games of his career.

When the Dallas Mavericks jumped out to a 2-0 lead, the series looked all but over. And it definitely looked like a wrap when the Mavs had a double-digit lead late in Game 3. But then D. Wade decided to put on arguably the greatest performance in Finals history. In just his third season, Wade scored 42, 36, 43, and 36 as the Heat won four straight for their first title.

If you want to understand just how important Game 5 of a 2-2 series is in the Finals, just ask Rasheed Wallace. With the Pistons up by 2 with 9.4 seconds left, Wallace left in-bounder Robert Horry unguarded as he went to trap Manu Ginobili in the corner. Ginobili found Horry for a wide-open 3-pointer that gave the Spurs the win. Detroit bounced back to win Game 6 on the road, but San Antonio closed it out in the finale.

Not only did the Nets lose Game 5 of that series, but they only won two games of that series by a total of 3 points. On the other hand, the Spurs won all four of their games by an average of 9.5 points per game, which is how they finished out the series by winning Games 5 and 6 by 10 and 11 points, respectively.