NBA Three-Point Contest 2026 Best Picks and Prediction Markets for All-Star Saturday

The NBA’s three-point contest has really turned into the event’s premier showcase.

The NBA All-Star Game itself is played on Sunday and is now a tournament style competition between Team USA and Team World, as the American and international players face each other.

On Saturday night, the dunk contest doesn’t carry the same weight as it used to, leaving hoops fans everywhere with the three-point competition as the real prize of the evening.

Let’s take a look at a few prediction markets for the NBA three-point competition on Kalshi. Please note that pictured percentages and prices are accurate as of Thursday, Feb. 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET and are subject to change.

Kon Knueppel 22% chance of winning (yes, 22¢. no, 79¢)

During a strong rookie season with the Charlotte Hornets, Knueppel is attempting nearly eight threes per night. He’s 43% from deep and is averaging just under 19 points per game.

In a small sample size, Knueppel has morphed into one of the NBA’s most accurate and reliable three-point shooters. While the Hornets aren’t very good, Knueppel has been a bright spot and certainly a player to plan on building around.

Participating in the three-point contest as a rookie is quite rare and no rookie has ever won it.

Damian Lillard 20% chance of winning (yes, 20¢. no, 82¢)

Lillard has yet to make his return to the floor with the Portland Trail Blazers, as the 35-year-old is still rehabbing his ruptured Achilles tendon.

Earlier this week, Lillard professed that NBA All-Star weekend needed more stars, and that’s why he’s participating in the three-point competition. It’ll be intriguing to see Lillard back in a Trail Blazers uniform. He cares about All-Star weekend, but is also contributing to the league's tanking problem by not being healthy enough to play.

A fan favorite that has won this event twice, it’s no surprise that Lillard is feeling the love to win in 2026. It would be a remarkably fun story.

Donovan Mitchell 14% chance of winning (yes, 13¢. no, 88¢)

Mitchell has almost kept his team alive this season all by himself, as the Cavaliers have dealt with their fair share of injuries.

With James Harden joining the mix, winning this event could prove that Cleveland is still Mitchell’s city. Mitchell is shooting 37.6% from deep this season and is averaging 29 points per game. As one of the best scorers in the league, Mitchell will try to join Zach LaVine as players to have won the dunk contest and three-point contest.

Devin Booker 13% chance of winning (yes, 13¢. no, 88¢)

Another fan favorite of this contest, it feels like Booker is having a down year by his standards.

The 11-year veteran is still scoring 25 points per game, but his three point attempts and averages are both down. Could a victory on Saturday night build Booker’s confidence back up for a playoff push?

Jamal Murray 11% chance of winning (yes, 11¢. no, 90¢)

Murray remains one of the league’s most underrated guards, so a victory on Saturday night would get him some much needed respect.

He’s currently shooting threes at the best clip of his career, knocking down 42.5% from deep and averaging just under 26 points per game.

Tyrese Maxey 12% chance of winning (yes, 12¢. no, 89¢)

It’s hard to believe that Maxey is already in his sixth season in the NBA. He’s playing more minutes than he ever has before for the Philadelphia 76ers and is averaging a career-best 28 points per game.

Maxey is a true volume scorer, shooting nearly eight three-pointers per night.

Norman Powell 10% chance of winning (yes, 10¢. no, 91¢)

Over the last decade, Powell has been one of the best stretch bigs in the league. During his first season with the Miami Heat, Powell is knocking down almost 40 percent of the threes that he shoots.

The two-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner is no longer an NBA secret, and could be a fun value play against the guards on Saturday night.

Bobby Portis Jr. 5% chance of winning (yes, 5¢. no, 96¢)

Portis is the longshot in this event because he doesn’t shoot nearly as many threes as his opposition. He attempts four per game, which is a lot for a big man, but not nearly as many as Maxey.