NHL Over/Under Best Bet: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Anaheim Ducks March 1st

A couple of swings and misses isn’t how I wanted to return to Deadspin, but there’s still a full weekend ahead and a rare two-bet excursion to ride through Saturday.

From the late slate tonight, we’re focusing on a matchup between two Western Conference bottom-feeders.

The Chicago Blackhawks, of course, are once again anchored near the cellar for the fourth straight season. Opposing them will be the Anaheim Ducks, who aren’t as low in the standings but are still outside a playoff spot and in danger of missing the postseason for a seventh consecutive year.

Offense has been the biggest issue for both sides, as the Ducks are scoring the fewest goals per game in the league with 2.55. Chicago, meanwhile, is barely ahead of them, averaging just 2.66. Stout goaltending could keep things tight tonight.

Neither starting goalie has been confirmed yet, but after Petr Mrazek was tagged for five goals Wednesday night — his second consecutive outing with that result — we can anticipate Arvid Soderblom as the starting netminder.

While the Hawks are enduring yet another disappointing campaign, Soderblom has been one of the few bright spots. The 25-year-old Swede is having his best season to date, posting career-best marks in goals-against average (3.02) and save percentage (.906).

Soderblom’s play appears to have also propelled him past Mrazek for the starting job. His 7-15-5 record may not shine, but like with starting pitchers in baseball, a win-loss record isn’t always indicative of performance. Blackhawks goalies are facing more shots per game (31.71) than all but one other team (San Jose Sharks).

Despite this, a matchup with the NHL’s lowest-scoring team can help mitigate that tendency. Plus, we’ll have the guy we’d want behind the pipes in Soderblom.

Allowing a lot of shots and generating very little offense is obviously not a recipe for success. We’ll depend on that latter habit, as Chicago averages the fewest shots per game in the NHL (24.8).

There are definitely some talented skaters within the Blackhawks offense — like Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen, and Ryan Donato — but lack of depth outside of them really puts a cap on the team’s collective scoring.

No matter who’s in net for the Ducks, it’ll be someone reliable. Lukas Dostal had a very strong first half of the season, earning borderline All-Star consideration — had the game been played this year. John Gibson is a consistently strong veteran.

Pick: UNDER 6 (-120, Caesars)

Bonus Over/Under Bet

NHL Betting Record: 31-20-3, +6.67 units
Over/Unders: 18-14-3
Goalie Props: 13-6

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially more picks.