Patriots vs. Bills Sunday Night Football Week 5 Betting Predictions

The New England Patriots will take on the divisional rival Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. The Bills lead the AFC East with a perfect 4-0 record. The Patriots have seen mixed results thus far, posting a 2-2 record through four weeks.

Unsurprisingly, Buffalo features one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. They rank third in the NFL in points per play (.506), and that number jumps to .536 at home in 2025. The Bills are averaging a healthy 33.3 points per game through four games.

The Patriots haven’t been as good, but they’ve found plenty of offensive success as well. They rank 10th in the league in points per play (.421) and points per game (25.5). It is important to note the lack of elite defenses they’ve faced thus far, though.

Both teams are dealing with some injuries, but they aren’t to major factors on the offensive side of the ball. The main injuries are to defensive players, which would help both teams find more success on the opposite side of the ball.

These teams don’t feature elite defenses, though. New England ranks 13th in the NFL in points allowed per play (.355), while Buffalo ranks 19th in the same category (.407). Overall, they’re combining to allow 44.8 points per game.

The important part about the defenses is the context of the games. Buffalo allowed 40 points to the Baltimore Ravens before stifling the New York Jets (with Justin Fields getting injured), Miami Dolphins, and New Orleans Saints. On the other side, New England struggled against Miami but performed well against the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers.

Although both defenses have flashed at times, it’s fair to wonder if they’re even average defenses at this point. Regardless, Buffalo is a dominant offense at home, and New England isn’t likely going to be able to slow them down. On the other side, the Patriots have flashed enough to find success in this game.

The potential pace of this game could be an issue for the over. Both teams have been slowing the pace down in their games this season. Buffalo has been as they run the clock out, but we could see that again with them being large favorites. The Patriots should look to play a bit faster as they try to play catch-up here.

We’re in a situation where both offenses can score 30+ points in a game, and this is a bit too low of a total for both teams' scoring potential.

Where to Bet: New England Patriots & Buffalo Bills over 48.5 points | -105 at Caesars Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 6-11