Raiders vs. Broncos Week 10 Thursday Night Football Top Betting Picks, Predictions

The Denver Broncos will host the Las Vegas Raiders in a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos have found plenty of success, posting a 7-2 record through nine games. The Raiders haven’t been as successful, recording a 2-6 record thus far.

Denver’s flashed offensively, but they haven’t been dominant by any stretch. They rank 17th in the NFL in points (.392) per play, but that number jumps to .440 at home. They’re averaging 31.3 points per game in Denver this season.

The Broncos have also found plenty of red zone success in 2025. They rank eighth in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (67.9%). Unsurprisingly, they’re slightly better at home, where that number climbs to 70.6%.

Denver’s scored 28+ points in three of their four home games this season. Surprisingly, the only team to hold the Broncos under this point total was the Tennessee Titans, but that was also their first game of the season. Since then, they averaged 35 points per game against the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Cincinnati Bengals.

Most importantly, Denver gets an elite matchup against a terrible Las Vegas defense. They rank 23rd in the NFL in points allowed (.411) per play. They’ve also been worse on the road, where they’re giving up .488 points per play. Overall, the Raiders are allowing 31.3 points per game outside of Las Vegas.

The key here is how bad they are in the red zone. Overall, they haven’t been awful, allowing only a 61.3% touchdown rate. That number balloons to 76.5% on the road, though.

Las Vegas started their season off with some defensive success. They held the New England Patriots to only 13 points in a road matchup. Since then, they allowed 37.3 points per game to the Washington Commanders (Marcus Mariota), Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs.

Ultimately, I’m just looking to get value on this number. FanDuel is offering the same bet for -188 odds, which feels closer to correct. DraftKings is also offering -175 odds on Denver to score more than 2.5 touchdowns in this game.

I’ve mentioned before that I generally don’t love to juice plays, but I love getting three touchdowns and a field goal here. The odds are a bit too close on this particular number.

Where to Bet: Denver Broncos over 23.5 points | -170 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 15-21