The AL Rookie of the Year Race Isn’t as Over as the Odds Suggest

The AL Rookie of the Year race seems to be all but wrapped up. Kevin McGonigle is currently -10000 to take home the AL Rookie of the Year, and it’s well deserved. McGonigle has slashed .276/.376/.425 and has accumulated 6.9 bWAR this season, the most of any position player in the American League. He has immediately established himself as the future cornerstone of the Tigers and looks like a guy who will be a star in baseball for a long time.

At the end of the day, McGonigle will win Rookie of the Year, but I just don’t get why he’s the only one in the conversation. Parker Messick is +1700 and has the second-best odds to win Rookie of the Year. Not only that, but Messick will likely finish third in CY Young Voting this year as well.

In his first full season in Cleveland, Messick has quickly risen to become the ace of a very solid rotation. Depending on how the schedule breaks, Messick could be in line for one more start this season, but as it stands, his rookie stats are 183.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 191 K’s, 6.2 bWAR, and a 12-9 record.

The Guardians have been a pitching factory while training under Carl Willis for the better part of the last three decades. Through that stretch, Messick might be the best rookie to take the bump for Cleveland.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Cleveland, but Messick has been the one player they can lean on at any point. More importantly, as the pressure has built up down the stretch for Cleveland, Messick has continued to rise to the occasion, holding a 2.48 ERA over his last 10 starts to push them into the playoffs.

McGonigle, on the other hand, has remained solid but has definitely cooled off a bit. He’s had a .776 OPS over that same period and has a good chance of finishing this season as a sub-.800 OPS bat.

Also, when playing the Guardians down the stretch, the Tigers were within striking distance of catching Cleveland. He had just three hits in that series, including one extra-base hit, and the Tigers dropped all three games to the Guardians without trailing at any point.

I think both of these players have similar end-of-year resumes, but only one of them is getting any love for hardware. Too many voters made up their minds months ago, but Parker Messick should be getting way more love in the AL Rookie of the Year race.